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Hurricane Mathew Coming to the U.S.

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by rocdiver, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. rocdiver

    rocdiver Senior Member

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    Hello all,

    I was a bit surprised to not find a thread on this subject already. Apologies if I missed it in the search. So here goes.

    Named Hurricane watches have just been issued for many counties in South Florida, which generally requires some action be taken by owners, depending on your insurance carrier.

    I have just returned from a delivering a yacht, towing a 32 foot tender, from the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas to get her away from the storm. Delivery was made to South Florida and I am very comfortable she is prepared for the impending storm. As such, I happen to be in the position of offering assistance to others who may not be as prepared.

    Purpose of this post is to reach out and see if any of our members who are are based elsewhere, but may keep their boats down here in South Florida, may be in need of assistance in re-positioning their boats or, making sure they are ready for the potential wind and surge.

    With deference to our friends whom have already been impacted by this rather large storm, many of us U.S. based boaters are now feeling the sense of impending doom as the force of this storm hasn't hit our shores down south in a long time.

    Please contact me via PM if I may be of any assistance.

    Kindest regards,
    ROCKY
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2016
  2. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Just a bit of an update to the watch. The hurricane watch area is now Deerfield Beach and north. The area south is under a tropical storm watch. Now, if your policy has a storm watch provision, then it's likely named storm, not named hurricane so it would apply in this situation regardless. We do not have any requirement on our policy to take action but we also live in an area that does not have great surge.

    I'd suggest anyone not familiar with the surge patterns where they are, go to a storm surge map to get an idea. Here is one link:

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp

    One thing you might be surprised at is that there are a few areas where the "hurricane holes", while protecting against wind, actually have a history of greater surge.
  3. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

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    Really nice post Rocky. Great to see members extending offers to help others. I've got no boat in this hunt, so anyone in need of help following the storm, I'm located near Jupiter. PM for assistance.

    Be safe all!
  4. rocdiver

    rocdiver Senior Member

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    Thank you OB and Carl.

    As always, I welcome your comments. As this progresses, it is only predicted to get worse.

    Hopefully we can all work together to mitigate the damage. Hopefully the web remains intact down here so we may remain in contact.

    ROCK
  5. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    The media as usual has been in a frenzy here in miami for no reason whatsoever. Sure we need to keep an eye on it but we re not going to get much more than 30/35 kts in browser or dade

    We had a scheduled haul out for pain to the miami River with the Lazzara and there were dozens of biats heading inland... I m on my hatt at dinner key / coconut grove where I stayed onboard for Katrina and Wilma which were no big deal

    I do fear major damage in the Exumas though as the circulation is not going to be affected by Cuba or Hispaniola. We just got back from 5 weeks there and really hope they make it with minimal damage but it doesn't look good
  6. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    For the Exumas, it's Deja Vu from Joaquin. I feel for those who have spent the last year rebuilding there and on Long Island.

    One thing that gets lost too is though South Florida has been a long time between hurricanes, we are better prepared than most places. The marinas are better built to sustain, we have many rivers, and our homes, especially if built after 1992 are built to much higher hurricane standards. Hurricane preparation for us is basically the same at our home and our boat and that is take everything not tied down indoors. Deck furniture, patio furniture. In this case for us, just another tropical storm.

    The oddity right now is that most of the ensemble has Matthew running offshore and making landfall in SC/NC. However, one has it making landfall in Central or Northern FL. That one happens to be the European model and they've consistently been the most accurate as to direction.
  7. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

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    Let's hope the European model parallels European cars in reliability!
  8. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Long Island got hit badly by Joaquim but it turned before affecting th Exumas. Even Gtown, closest to th center didn't suffer much.

    This one is different With th eye passing on the islands, the storm surge behind the eye may be be very damaging

    Hopefully it will track a litt further out from the south east coast but if it get any closer, the parallel track curving along th Carolinas has the potential was catastrophic wide spread d struction
  9. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    Now upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for SE Florida.
    Been busy all day preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
    As of this evening the experts are forecasting NNW 55 knots Thursday.
    That could change and it could get ugly.
    Holding on to my hat.
  10. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    The reports and forecasts conflict with themselves so much all we know is that we don't know. Says hurricane warning yet doesn't forecast winds greater than tropical storm. Another site will say tropical storm. NHC just as conflicted.

    Then there is this headline:

    Will El Faro's Replacement Sail Into Hurricane Matthew?

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...weather_20161005&cid=par-weather-right-module

    Oh, and their ship, the Perla del Caribe left Jacksonville late Tuesday for Puerto Rico.
  11. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    Ohhhh geez. Tote just doesn't learn I guess.

    This storm is SOOOOOOOO annoying, one source shows the cone being away from South Florida, another one shows South Florida in it.....back and forth.....
  12. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Well, the sources have all moved closer to the European version of things. Still I do believe that we've got a lot of Chicken Little and the Sky is Falling, although I think there is reason for precaution.
  13. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    There is no conflict between warnings and forecasts.... The NHC forecasts haven't changed much, just a few miles in the last 18 hours.

    Reason there is a hurricane warning from broward on is that the storm is forecast to pass close enough to shore than any slight deviation could bring minimal hurricane force winds to shore. And anyone who had been watching these for a while know that they do not move in a straight line but wobble back and forth.

    There are two issues with what s going on right now... First the media and thousands of self appointed online experts are thriving for this excitement. It's been almost 10 years since Florida has been threatened after all. Proof of that? I don't hear anything about Florida being on th weaker side of the storm and how hurricane force winds only extend 40nm to th west

    Second I think we re now getting way too much information too easily. All those fancy graphics depicting the mighty models are useless unless you know how to interpret them. At 3 days and out there will always be large variations and picking a line in a middle isn't enough.

    This reminds me of Wilma, back in 05. I stayed on my boat at dinner key in coconut grove where the surge was a foot above the docks and winds around 80/90ktsl no big deal. Ran on Genset for a few days but almost right away things were back to normal on shore with stores open and stocked four days later l after I had shopped for groceries and found just about everything, I saw a 1/2 mile long line of cars waiting form free ice and free water... With TV crews filming

    Nothing wrong about being prepared but the hype is just plain nuts
  14. rocdiver

    rocdiver Senior Member

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    http://www.yachtforums.com/threads/what-an-old-broward-is-really-worth.17518/#post-140314

    No big deal? These boat owners from your post after Wilma might not agree.
  15. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    It's like what has occurred overnight, Pascal. The paths have changed some after coming up parallel to the Florida shore. The range from moving moderately off shore as it moves north to one which even does nearly a complete clockwise loop.
  16. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    I don't have to look at the thread as I know very well which boat this is about as she sunk on the pier 3 tee head and I m on pier 7. There was also a Bertram that sunk at the pier 4 tee head.

    Problem with seafari is that she was left at the worst slip at the marina, a tee head exposed to the channel entrance between the spoil island where the wind and wave action funnel in and hit that tee head straight in. As mentioned I stayed on my hatt in the same Marina and had no issues, like the other hundreds boats in the marina. My point was that the hype about Wilma was way worst than the actual effects.
  17. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    My point... Models change and can be all over the place. 12 hours ago, th official 5 days forecast showed a brush with Nantucket!

    On thing to remember though is that while the NHC is pretty good in forecast tracks especially at 3 days. What they are terrible at, and often admit that in the forecast discussion issued every 6 hours is how low their skills are when it comes to intensity. We saw this time offer time and again with Matthew when it blew from a TS supposed to grow to 100ktd in 24 hours and got to 130kts

    In this case, what bothers me is that they don't forecast any intensification while the storm runs the Gulf Stream for 300 miles. Looks like they re hoping shear will balance the impact of the stream but if the steering current are weak enough to let it do a loop, I wonder if there will be nought shear to prevent intensification. Not trying to second guess the experts but I have to wonder.
  18. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Interestingly at this point that we have hurricane warnings but the actual forecasts do not have hurricane force winds for either of the three counties.
  19. Scallywag

    Scallywag Member

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    Hoping the Exumas weather the storm safely and that there are minimal losses. Heck, the rest of the Bahamas at that rate. Looks like Matt is going to rip up the spine of the islands. :(
  20. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Right now, the forecast for Georgetown has maximum winds of 100 mph. While not great, if it holds to that, it's still a lot better than a CAT 4 or even CAT 3 with a direct hit. Nassau's forecast maximum wind is 110 mph. The storm is currently a very low end CAT 3, but expected to pass through the Bahamas as a CAT 4, so a direct hit would have winds over 130 mph. Surge for the Bahamas is forecast at 10-15'.