Click for Delta Click for Abeking Click for Mulder Click for Cross Click for Westport

Coronavirus Covid 19 and Marine Industry

Discussion in 'YachtForums Yacht Club' started by olderboater, Feb 29, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2008
    Messages:
    2,126
    Location:
    Sardinia
    I struggle with your logic.
    A debate on the impact of a pandemic disease on the economy is OBVIOUSLY a political matter.
    Why focusing on the marine industry - or any other industry - should change this very simple fact?
    Besides, several comments posted so far are the living proof that politics can and do affect the marine industry.
    Including those stripped, among which I recall also some of yours - which BTW I happened to agree with.

    But mind, I don't have anything against all that - it's the publisher who does, as I understand.
    Which in turn is the reason why I disagree with your last statement.
    From my viewpoint, it doesn't make any sense to contribute to a debate weighing the content of what I'm writing in order to not have it stripped, while possibly seeing it stripped regardless - even if just because it was a reply to someone else's silly statement.
    If this is a debate I can't contribute to as I consider appropriate, based on actual facts rather than BS, I just stop contributing at all, saving both mine and the mods' time.
    It's that simple.
  2. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    First, It's NOT the "China" Virus. It belongs to all of us regardless of where it may have originated. Maybe some country intentionally started it in their adversary's country as an act of viral warfare. We don't know, so let's stop that. It's the "Corona Virus" or Covid 19. Second, isn't it fun living next to a rental house fun, especially a short-term party house rental (virus or not)? Like having a raft-up sand bar off your seawall. But some people do like it. After having a rental next door at my first home I made sure not to make that mistake with my second. You might want to take extra measures against infection (along with erecting tall thick bushes).
  3. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    14,448
    Location:
    Fort Lauderdale
    ENOUGH with the bickering.

    The effect of a GLOBAL virus on a GLOBAL industry (Marine Industry) has absolutely NOTHING to do with Politics. The spread of the disease, how it effects parts suppliers, builders, yacht owners, yacht usage and more is not political. There is some politics on say Dade county shut down all marina's, parts suppliers, etc. etc..... but this is not meant to be a political thread. It's ok to post the facts like a County closing an aspect of the marine industry, but not to go down the rabbit hole of politics.
  4. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2008
    Messages:
    2,126
    Location:
    Sardinia
    See? Q.E.D.
    Good luck in your and the publisher attempt to keep politics out of here... :D
  5. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    No it's not the publisher who does. It's the members. We're the ones who determined a long time ago that the focus of YF would be the maritime industries, primarily the recreational end. It's why we come to YF. We all know that if you want to ruin a dinner party just start a conversation about religion or politics, and we don't want this party ruined. Of course they'll creep into any discussion anywhere on occasion, but the smart host redirects the conversation. away from it.
  6. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2008
    Messages:
    2,126
    Location:
    Sardinia
    Fairenuff, I don't mind whether it's the publisher's desire or "ours", whatever that means.
    The fact remains that when I understand that it's pointless to contribute to a debate, I stop doing it, and I hope you are not blaming me for this.
    In fact, as you can easily check, after my post #361 where I replied to YF that I was going to do just that, I simply answered to comments related to the method, which is a totally different matter altogether.
  7. AMG

    AMG YF Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2004
    Messages:
    5,380
    Location:
    Sweden
    Social Distancing When Boating...

    Social distance.jpg
  8. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    351
    Location:
    Newfoundland
  9. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    351
    Location:
    Newfoundland
    The key number you continue to ignore are the 644,604 Negatives.
  10. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2015
    Messages:
    969
    Location:
    Chesapeake Bay
    OK, I'm still crunching the numbers and I've started a spreadsheet for it.
    I update every day at 20:00 EDT/17:00 PDT. I figure it's the administrators doing the filing and they should still be pretty much 9-5

    *It shows daily cumulative, increase, rate of increase and days to double.
    *It then projects forward what will happen at that rate, unrestrained.
    *Eventually the virus will run out of easy targets and start to slow down. Social distancing is designed to speed that up, and the herd is only so large.
    *At that point my chart will show a declining rate of increase, and increasing days to double.
    *The actual number of increased deaths per day will then level, and then go down.
    *At that point we'll know we're coming out of the woods. (Italy is JUST getting there with a steady 8-900 a day out of a population the size of California)
    *Projecting the numbers forward beyond the chart is very scary. I trust we won't get there.
    *At this point this thing slows no signs of slowing down, and with NYC JUST starting to cool there are various locations in the country heating up......
    *Fauci this morning voiced an estimate of 1-200,000 I think they're getting us used to large numbers slowly....

    The following is yesterdays 20:00 chart, I will upload a new one tonight.

    Attached Files:

  11. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2002
    Messages:
    20,387
    Location:
    South Florida
    Mapism,

    A few months ago we lost a very knowledgeable senior member (Captholi) after he reached a point of no return with you. Then, I got a PM from you asking for clarification of our rules regarding post removal or editing. As this appears to be an issue of concern for you, let me clarify. Our mods removed a link to another forum in one of your posts. It's a common rule with most forums and it's generally good forum etiquette. You've been around forums long enough to know this.

    Our mods are Kevin and Lars. They have been here from year one. Kevin stripped this thread after a senior member requested we clean it up. I saw about 2 dozen posts soft-deleted in holding cue and waiting for review, but I didn't read the posts because if one of our mods removed them, I trust their judgment (explicitly). I can count on one hand the number of times we have disagreed over 17 years.

    You obviously bring a lot of experience to YF and we welcome your knowledge. The world is a crazy place right now. Let's keep YF sane.

    Thanks,

    Carl
  12. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    8,192
    Location:
    Miami, FL
    Didn’t it originate in China? How can something that came from China not be called Chinese? Confused.

    how about the Spanish Flu of 1918? Actually it likely didn’t come from Spain but I don’t see people complaining about it being called the Spanish Flu
  13. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2013
    Messages:
    7,132
    Location:
    Fort Lauderdale
    The title is political. Coronavirus Covid 19 and Marine Industry? I very carefully chose that title to try to focus simply on the impact to the marine industry not on a debate as to the politics of what was going on. Builders are shut down. Shows are cancelled. There is a recession or worse building and there will be a reduction in luxury spending. For the industry, this is 2008 again. We can't yet know how long the recovery will take and if it's the same, not quite as bad, or worse.

    When the thread was started one month ago, the Chinese builders were shut down and now they're building but since then the Italian builders have all been shut down as well as the French and Spanish. I don't know about the Dutch. Also the American builders are all shut down now.

    Amazingly I see brokers still trying to close deals. Seems a bit of denial to me, but I've seen surveys and sea trials scheduled locally that just don't happen. Someone says "no" and things are on hold. Others may be happening.

    Now, what would be nice is to get some posts about the Dutch builders and others, updates on the situations with Princess and Sunseeker. Any inside industry knowledge and/or opinion on what the impact is to date and might be depending on how long the current situation continues. I only have first hand information from a limited number of builders, then it's second and third hand although from sources I'd consider reliable. I'm sure there are some here with more direct knowledge. On the record it's often something like a setback but we'll be fine. Off the record it's comparisons to the luxury tax and to the recession. There is a lot of concern over existing orders, even boats currently in production, and just how long can those sales hold up. Some have received $6 million toward starting a $30 million boat and don't have the $24 million themselves to complete it. Owners of the builder haven't left that much money in them. Are they willing to invest more in these times?

    In the US for smaller boat builders, they are about to lose this entire season. Boats that were on order for March to May will largely be cancelled as dealers will not have sold what they have and do not want more boats, especially shipped in June or later. Sea Ray only still was being operated by Brunswick because they couldn't sell it. Do they continue to operate it? How many dealers cannot afford the loss of a year?

    I imagine the European local markets are much the same with peak selling March to May or June.

    We've already seen boats that were shipped before the shut down, headed to Great Lakes dealers, that are now stuck in limbo. Dealers on Lake Michigan do not want to receive boats for inventory in May in the middle of a recession.

    There is a tremendous amount of discussion behind the scenes on all the boats currently in production world wide. One term you're likely to hear bandied about more than ever before is "Force Majeure." Most contracts have it in them and even in those it's not in, it may be a matter of contract law in some cases. In fact, often not having such a defined clause leaves parties in even worse shape. However, simply stated, Force Majeure is a contract provision that relieves the parties from performing their contractual obligations when certain circumstances beyond their control arise, making performance inadvisable, commercially impracticable, illegal, or impossible. Now just to make things more challenging, the laws applicable vary widely by country and in the US they vary widely by state.

    One attorney expressed the thought to me that virtually every large contract would be made voidable due to the shutdowns and their timing. There's also the tried and true "Time is of the Essence" clauses. Now, just saying it is, doesn't make it so. If a build of a boat is scheduled to take 3 years and is delayed 3 months, then hard to make that claim. However, a delivery promised to a Chicago area dealer in early April delayed two months if very much so. We've personally got a boat on order with a delivery date in Italy for March 2021 and a penalty clause in effect on May 15, 2021. We've already told them we'll amend the contract based on the time they're shut down.

    Where parties to contracts try to work together, much can be worked out, but history tells us in times of economic hardship people don't try to work things out. In our business we're dealing with hundreds of purchase contracts impacted by the various shutdowns around the world and we're attempting to reach mutual agreements on each one. In most cases that involves us saying we'll still take the goods even though late and out of season and the vendor giving a price reduction. We want to maintain relationships. However, many US department stores are facing bankruptcy and will simply cancel many orders.

    The marine industry is fragile. You would think with 10 years of growth and strengthening, everyone in it would have built a cushion by now. However, profits haven't matched sales growth in many cases and even where they have the owners haven't left the money in. Whatever profits there were have long since been pulled out.

    I'd love to hear from others on this topic, especially those with European knowledge.
  14. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Did it? Do you know that for sure? Do you know that it wasn't brought to China (innocently or not)? Does it really matter? What matters is that it's here, and here is everywhere. We all know that calling it the "Chinese" virus is a political statement because of who is trying to push that title and why, and if you want to go to someplace like Craigslist we can discuss it there. The Doctors, scientists and health professionals named it the "Corona virus" or "Covid 19" because of it's characteristics and when it began. This is a health and science matter. They named it. Period.
  15. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    P.S. Actually I (and my parents who lived through it) refer to it as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918. It better describes what and when you're talking about, a time when people weren't able to see (nor the person on the street understand) molecular structure.
  16. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Olderboater that was a very good post. Thank you for really stating the situation very well and succinctly. Those of us who have been around for awhile have seen this many times. The marine industry has always been fragile. I think this one is scarier than any before because we're all being hit on all sides.
  17. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2008
    Messages:
    2,126
    Location:
    Sardinia
    Thanks Carl for your further explanations, though I'm well aware by now of most of what you are saying.
    And I have no problem at accept all that, also because I'm always free to refrain from contributing further to any debate, when I don't think it's worth the effort, as in this particular thread.

    On the other hand, I was totally unaware of having had anything to see with the "loss" of a forum member.
    Sorry about that, regardless of how knowledgeable and senior he is, and of how valid his reasons could have been.
    To be honest, his name barely rings a bell, and I can't for the life of me remember what I said to upset him so badly.
    But I take your word for it, and if you can point me to anything I wrote which was either offensive towards him or even just simply wrong, I can guarantee you in advance that I would have zero problems to apologize, if appropriate.
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  18. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,149
    Location:
    Florida
    I respect your opinion but you are wrong, we all know where this virus originated at Wuhan China. I would call it the Wuhan Coronavirus but to easy to just call it the China Virus. I'm not a politically correct person and could care less if it bothers China or any China sympathizer's. The house next door is not a rental, can you believe the parents in the family were allowing their children to come to Florida in the middle of this pandemic. The beaches were closed a week ago, not a secret. Most everything fun is closed in NW Fl. I've been watching for day's the rental pontoon's many have 5 to 9 people, haven't seen 10 or more yet. Plenty of boats out there too. Actually I think being on a boat is about the safest place to be if out and about. Heard they have check points on I-10 heading East, and I-95 heading South, apparently they are closing Fl to traffic from La and NY.
  19. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,205
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Again it's a political statement and to be avoided here. I think most here are intelligent enough to remember Corona Virus or Covid 19.
    Guess you're down to the big hedges then. Reported today that Dr. Fuci says that 200,000 Americans will die, and they'll be in all age groups as evidenced by the baby today and the others of all ages we're now seeing. As I say, you can't legislate smart. Good luck to the parents, friends and co-workers of those Typhoid Marys.
  20. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    351
    Location:
    Newfoundland
    Ok enuf of the political b.s. associated with the SARS-Corona virus, here are some facts:

    I am really irritated by the unreal action I see taken with the “MSM” touting how great the Chinese are by sending supplies to Europe while the US can’t do this anymore - b/c nothing is made there anymore.
    * Masks as sent by them to Holland are faulty;
    * The test kits sent to the Philippines give false results 40% of the time;
    * Up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable, quick coronavirus test kits China delivered to the Czech Republic earlier this month were faulty;
    * The US had faulty tests from WHO (UN) at the beginning. Next week, you’re supposed to get the 5 minute test. You were using Chinese faulty tests;

    The faux news absolutely loves China. Only three months ago Fortune magazine (now owned by a major investor in a large Chinese bank) was telling us how Trump was bad for business and China was the perfect place to invest! You can't make this stuff up! "Shoddy manufacturing" was an oversight in this graphic below. Fortune Cookie News: Is This American Business Magazine a Propaganda Tool of China?


    A.) Typical Chi-Com junk manufacturing?
    B.) Typical Chi-Com habit of dumping?
    C.) Typical Chi-Com attempt to kill people?
    D.) All of the Above!

    You know, I think I am going to go with D.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.