Click for Apollonian Click for Llebroc Click for Abeking Click for Nordhavn Click for Westport

2nd Attempt-Coronavirus Covid 19 and the Marine Industry

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by olderboater, Apr 6, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ScrumpyVixen

    ScrumpyVixen Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2010
    Messages:
    87
    Location:
    Sydney
    A Sydney (Aust) perspective. After thinking about your comment and talking to friends in different industries (retail, medical, finance, convention centre) over the past week, I have to reluctantly agree.

    Realistically, there is no vaccine for 12-18 months, if not much longer, so the only way to manage it is tracking and suppression until reduced to small and seasonal outbreaks. Unlikely it will be eradicated. The impact on economic activity in certain sectors has been like a light switch, and as time goes on, will impact most of the economy. Counter intuitively, I think (and hope) the lock downs will reduce the overall economic damage by shortening the duration of the threat. Speaking for my family and business, Without restrictions, the rate of transmission and infected would be at a level where there is fair chance that you and people you know would get it. And while only 2% die from it, assuming sufficient medical capacity, a lot get very sick at home and have a slow recovery with residual issues. Speaking for my family and employees, we would be in voluntary lock down in such a situation, and I suspect enough of the population would do the same, resulting in a similar (or worse) economic impact, but over a longer period.

    On the brighter side, we have very low infection rates here, and only about 40 intensive care beds in use, so we may get easing of restrictions in a month or two, but with sporting events, bars, conventions, and such gatherings closer to the end of the year. Oh, and our coffee shops are open for take away coffee, so there are still some small pleasures, along with a walk or run by the harbour each day.

    You know when you are running/cycling/insert activity here and you are exhausted, but you tell yourself not to give up and go a little further. Well, that's us all. We have to grind along and hope that the game of chance that is life, is going to give us an OK outcome.

    Finishing on a boating note, now that my kids are finishing school, and fuel is cheaper than water, I have started the unwise (economically) process of looking at boats for sale. Scrumpy Vixen No.4 is out there.
  2. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    6,464
    Location:
    Miami, FL
    The death rate is not 2%!!! A few studies have been done here in the US showing far higher infection rates with people showing little or no symptoms.

    One study in Ma shows an infection rate of 30%

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus

    Another one on the left coast suggest infection rates as high as 85 times what has been reported

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/coro...fections-85-times-higher-reported-researchers

    This means the fatality rate is 10, 20, 30 times lower than reported and in line with other viruses like the flu.
  3. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2015
    Messages:
    935
    Location:
    Chesapeake Bay
    The death count will start going down too. There's a lag here. Those dying today were admitted 1-2-3 weeks ago.
  4. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    352
    Location:
    Newfoundland
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020
  5. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,218
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    From your lips to God's ear. Assuming that happens what would you credit for the decline since we presently have no vaccine or cure? Seems the only thing we've done is social distancing, which is currently under attack.
  6. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Messages:
    352
    Location:
    Newfoundland
  7. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,218
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
  8. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    6,464
    Location:
    Miami, FL
    fuel has gone down a bit but retailers can’t lower the prices until they sell what they have bought at higher prices. Not an issue for land based gas station but an issue for marinas.

    not a healthy situation

    Still many Many ways to burn fuel in many states. We ve been going out just about every other day, whether with the “office” or our 53 Hatt
  9. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2013
    Messages:
    6,685
    Location:
    Fort Lauderdale
    Well, we've got all full tanks in our boats and in our cars as well. Cars we paid $2.40 or so and it's now $1.85. Our average diesel price is probably $2.75 or so and now it's $2.50 and by the time we can enjoy it likely close to $2.00.
  10. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    13,862
    Location:
    Fort Lauderdale
    I just paid $1.45 on diesel on under 200 gallons from a truck in Ft. Laud.
  11. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2013
    Messages:
    6,685
    Location:
    Fort Lauderdale
    Well, we haven't bought fuel in quite a while. If it was business inventory, I'd have to write it down now, but I have enough things to write down without it.
  12. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2019
    Messages:
    956
    Location:
    Vero Beach
    Crap, I need to burn....someone grab the lines. Rum is already aboard.
  13. johnnry

    johnnry Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    42
    Location:
    Babylon ny
    So the weak,sick and old that were vulnerable are the obvious first victims,than those caring for them..As they get less, so will the death cases..for the ones not inflected yet,have to keep them continued isolated and let the rest of us keep the country running.We all know a non tested but clearly corona individual how did fine..."smart" social distancing works if most people follow..look at the smarter european countries...negative oil is only one of the many to come un-expectedted consequences of shutting down a country..
  14. JROliva

    JROliva New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2019
    Messages:
    20
    Location:
    Miami, FL
    All things require balance. Of course no dollar value can be put on a human life but the social price being paid is also beyond dollar value. With quarantine has come increases in child abuse, domestic violence and substance abuse. The oil debacle is but a sign of things to come. We must begin an intelligent opening but we must open or face the further consequences, including but not limited to social unrest. As the days pass we will see the structural price, rough seas ahead.
  15. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    11,218
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Well I guess we'll see if it's time to open up. The citizens of Georgia, South Carolina and Jacksonville Florida have volunteered to be our Guinea pigs. Let's see what happens there (or doesn't) in about 2 or 3 weeks. If the virus is curing itself like a miracle those will be great places to vacation and live. If Social Distancing is what's been cutting the transmission rates, well …..
  16. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    6,464
    Location:
    Miami, FL
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.