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2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Not really the point. The point was, trying again, that the models ALL have a high margin of error that gets reported in their forecasts. This storm is literally a matter of miles and feet from devastating a property or missing it. No one, no model can predict a wiggle or wobble. No one can tell you whether the dune in Vero Beach, for example, is going to stay or go, and behind it devastating erosion and potential for loss of life.

    This monster is that close. No one has a clue how it's going to shake out. Last night as I went to bed I was expecting it to be slowing down only to see it tick up in speed at 11pm. Even the experts were scratching their heads.
  2. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    It was 5MPH at 8PM and 6MPH at 11pm then it stalled. That s normal. Storms wobble around... I seriously doubt the forecasters at NHC we’re scratching their heads over that serial.
  3. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    It went from 5 mph to 6 mph at the point in time when these guys were calling for it to stall. They were on TV stating that they were expecting it to slow down and that they were wondering when that was going to actually happen.

    It's ok for you to have unmovable faith in their forecasts. Perhaps you don't have a significant asset sitting on the dune in the Treasure Coast. For those that do, the little details, the wobbles, they make a massive difference. No, I didn't record nor can I post a video link, but I know what I saw.
  4. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    BTW, it was 8mph when it arrived at the Abacos. It slowed to 5 mph as it traveled though and into GB. It ticked to 6 mph at 11pm.

    Hell, NOAA is on the air right now saying the exact same thing....uncertainty relative to wobbles and proximity to land.
  5. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    One more...why the hell is there a cone at the next 48 hours if their computers are so ******* special? It's Mother Nature. She ain't a computer. A solar burst can shift a pressure ridge.
  6. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Show me a computer, and I can show you it go blue screen. They're tools. They don't always work. They only tend to help. If this is a Cat 1, no stress. This isn't that.
  7. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    You re missing the point. Storms do not move in the linear fashion. A couple of mile speed variation is normal just like they wobble left and right. You have to look at the trend. Over at least 2 forecasts and advisory package.

    I ve been playing chicken with tropical systems since the early 80s having to make decisions for my home, business, plane and boat. My house on st Barth’s was hit by Luis in 95, a slooowwww moving cat 5.
  8. jsschieff

    jsschieff Senior Member

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    I follow a terrific blog by a couple named Chilberg who live aboard their Grand Banks 49. Alas, they were caught in Marsh Harbor by Dorian. They moved off the boat to the Abaco Beach Resort -- I am hoping for the best for them but I heard the storm surge in Marsh Harbor was 19 ft. Can't imagine their boat will be unscathed.

    Some terrifying videos today (Monday) from folks in Grand Bahama. Water 5 ft deep on the first floor and rising, they are huddled and praying on the 2nd floor.

    Still possible my place in Stuart could be damaged -- it's on the ICW near St. Lucie Inlet -- but whatever I suffer is nothing compared to the folks in the Abacos and Grand Bahama who will be devastated.
  9. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    No, I really don't believe I am missing any points. I'm concerned about the Florida impacts of this particular storm. The experts are equally concerned. Their newer computers and programs have never made these cones of uncertainty any smaller. A few days ago, it seems, they had this going across Florida into the Gulf. Then they started shifting it east, daily, only to then shift it back west.

    Again, it's mother nature. Growing up as a kid many moons ago in Miami, I understand the history and challenges. But a wiggle puts the Treasure Coast into Cat 3+. Similarly a wiggle could have put Ft Lauderdale into a higher level of peril, and that's where this nonsense began.

    Odds? Odds are this misses Florida entirely beyond Cat1 impacts. But these particular odds are not played for other folks by computer models. They're played by individuals making good decisions for themselves, and cities have to manage staff, assets, and emergency egress. Hence, bridges close.
  10. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Very true. Lots of friends over there. Lives lost. Accountability for others still lagging because they're still in the mess. Boats and docks? Mostly toast. If the 49 survived, that's a heck of a story.
  11. motoryachtlover

    motoryachtlover Senior Member

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    Look up Barometer Bob and go to the Abaco forum that seems to have the most up to date info on the devastation. Does anyone know of a reputable place to donate money?
  12. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Pretty cool shot from the Hunters' plane...

    [​IMG]
  13. captholli

    captholli Senior Member

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    Thank you for the Barometer Bob forum mention, Lots of info there from cruisers, residents in regards to Bakers, G.Turtle and Guana & Elbow areas. The BB forum has many groups like the local island fire dept. handling donations etc.
  14. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

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    Amazing pic, never seen one from that angle.
  15. motoryachtlover

    motoryachtlover Senior Member

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    Your welcome. A little leery of go fund me but will read through the forum again. The forum has been updated with pictures. The ones of sea spray are very bad.
  16. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    The city of Miami has the BAHAMASTRONG program which I'd encourage people to help. A seaplane with former Seals is flying over tomorrow. They have 25 containers of supplies ready when the barge can go.

    The CG did land a helicopter at Marsh Harbour, taking a physician and medics and evacuating 19 today.
  17. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    There are a number of efforts going on right now to bring direct relief to the people of the Abacos. The concern is that once the extend of the horror in Freeport comes to light the Abacos especially the smaller Cays and settlements will be left out in the cold. Unfortunately it looks like the Bahamas government wants everything to go thru NAS
  18. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1045 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/0900 UTC, is located near
    26.9N 78.4W about 30 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island.
    Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 950 mb and is
    currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
    gusts to 130 kt. Dorian is a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is
    expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of
    days. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
    23N-30N between 75W-80W. A slow north-northwestward motion is
    expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by
    Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast
    Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
    Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today.
    The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida
    east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the
    Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday,
    and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. See the
    latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also, use the URL
    www.hurricanes.gov.
  19. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Still over shallow water at Grand Cay.
    Bless those soles at Roses Canteen.
  20. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    The structure is getting pretty ragged. It s been sitting over the same pool of water for 48 hours drastically cooling its own fuel