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2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    It wasn't for the season.
  2. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    No, I got that...also, having grown up in Miami, I know how things roll on that river...
  3. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Now at 150 mph. Forecast to hit 155 mph by this evening. A Max CAT 4. 157 mph would be CAT 5.
  4. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Lots of erosion taking place on the west side eye is no longer centered

    Frankly whether it 150 or 157 is meaningless.
  5. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    54FD3C6D-9D37-4B13-A62E-C2C6A0ED52F0.jpeg 2 of these Riva’s sought shelter in my neighborhood.
    Are they yours Olderboater?
  6. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    Just an hour ago I had neighbors hang shutters on the house and another prep his boat with double lines/fenders/remove canvas etc.
    Makes me nervous as the forecast has been favorable towards an East turn for 24 hours and updates all day shows the blow to veer further East and North.
    Either these folks know something I don’t, or they forgot to check the Internet AND the Weather Channel...:(
  7. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    A couple of hours ago...

    IMG_9838.JPG
  8. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    Yeah, I am also an optimist, but did not change anything on my ‘cane prep, will wait until the thing is way up the coast, THEN go back to normal. Cautious, but not celebrating yet: All the grey hairs on my head have a story to tell. :D
  9. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    No, not our Riva's.

    We're fully prepped except patio furniture and we're using it, but interesting to see what others do. One county was already calling for evacuation. Palm Beach County is closing schools on Tuesday. We're just enjoying what may be the last extended sunshine for a while.

    First real watch or warning issued for FL, a tropical storm watch from Deerfield to Sebastian Inlet.

    Forecast to move over a "deep layer of very warm water, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so." That's for a storm already at 150 mph. The path has moved very little but has moved a little more east.
  10. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    Yup, that is what I was quoted.
  11. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    East is good..

    In Navigation School they said East is Least.
    West is best.
    Today is good...
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2019
  12. HTMO9

    HTMO9 Senior Member

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    Norseman that was the crib for calculating the magnetic declination. But with todays GPS plotters and glass cockpits, most boaters and may be most PPL tigers do not even know what magnetic declination means :p.

    A true blue water sailor goes only downwind and follows the trade winds, anything else is rubbish. He does not need any stinking wiskey compass.

    or

    “The fighter pilots have to rove in the area alotted to them in any way they like, and when they spot an enemy they attack and shoot him down, anything else is rubbish.”–Manfred von Richthofen, a.k.a. “The Red Baron”

    Sorry Norseman, I could not resist!
  13. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    upload_2019-9-1_7-56-4.jpeg
  14. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Cat 5 as of 8am, 160 MPH. Pressure down to 927mb. Entering Andrew territory...if you're on the east coast of Florida...we're relying on a slow-down to avoid the direct hit. Models have shifted a bit back to the west. How do you spell erosion?
  15. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    I would not that the 8am came in with a slight tick north. It's been riding 26.4N. The 8am reports 26.5. So is that a wobble or the beginning of a turn?

    Elbow Cay, just can't imagine...
  16. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Hurricane don’t go in a straight line they always wobble along
  17. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    175mph at 930am, 922mb, still moving west at 8, same Lat line.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
  18. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
    ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES
  19. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    With the exception of all the fine boaters on this board of course. :cool:

    Turn right Dorian, right turn right now Big Boy..:confused:
  20. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

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    Big difference in hours of forward forecasting vs days. Never know where a hurricane is going until it gets there.