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2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    There's been a new twist. The European models were showing it not crossing deep onto land but turning up the coast and now the forecast has been modified with the storm making initial land contact around Fort Pierce, but heading north and following the coast indefinitely. In some models it goes all the way up the coast as far as Canada. The current path shows a CAT 2 as it reaches the Jacksonville area. Slowing down and loss of steering currents have led to this change. However, the forecast advises we "should be prepared for additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future model trends." A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Bahamas.

    Winds are now forecast at 140 mph as it passes just north of Marsh Harbour. Still 140 mph as it hits in the Fort Pierce area and 100 mph when it reaches northern Florida.
  2. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Thank you my friend. Were in Satsuma now 32189. Were still going to get wet, just don't know if 1, 2 or 3.
    Some Euro models are predicting staying offshore and traveling north just off the coast.
    Then coming in around Daytona or heading out N E.

    I hated this rain cloud when I first found it.
    Knew it was trouble then.

    I picked a hell of a time to quite smoking.
  3. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Glad I pulled the plug on the weekend at Bakers Bay Abaco :)
  4. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    Are you in Miami for this one?
  5. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Probably the best place to be.
    I have past customers racing down to cut thru the lake to Ft Myers.
    Local weather clowns have all N/E Florida confused and scared to death.
  6. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    One marina on the Miami River wanted $90 per foot for the storm, yes $90. I recommended to the owner to run it to Key West for the same money, new 66' MY. Which has been out of the NOAA cone, but the owner declined. I have the boat tied up at Bahia Mar with 15, 3/4"x50' lines, 2 15"x48" fenders, 2 A4 polyballs, 2 A5 polyballs and 3 smaller fenders. The docks are very strong there, and floating, so everything is tight since you don't have to account for tide. No momentum should keep lines from snapping.
  7. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    The 11 PM update shows it now at 140 mph and a build ahead up to 145 mph but actually lightening up a bit before landfall. Landfall even comes into question with it skirting the coast and that could mean over land or many miles off shore. Still would impact land but in a different way. That part of the forecast is going to continue to change.
  8. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Yes we are. I was never too worried as it was pretty clear the center was going to pass north getting us westerlies and south westerlies from which we re protected.

    The 5Am has it passing even further away now, possibly staying off shore...
  9. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    You takin
  10. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    Oops, got cut off.

    Good news, the 05:00 ‘cane track shows a sharp North turn before hitting the coast.
    Lucked out again, that’s is what clean living will do for ya..
  11. gcsi

    gcsi Member

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    Looking at latest forecast, what I like to call “the Cone of Uncertainty” is over 400 miles wide at the Florida pivot. Pretty clear indicator of how much confidence forecasters have in this particular forecast.
  12. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Confidence ? No..
    Sell more commercials on TV? YES..

    Unless you just watched TV this morning, to watch the endowed twits in high heels, on the beach, try to talk about some storm out there somewhere... :confused::confused::confused:
  13. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    The hysterical cone of death is fixed. It uses the average track error at day 1 to 5, it is not based on each storm or forecast
  14. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    BTW;
    TWC is on the bulkhead, 2 boats away from our friends in Stewart.
  15. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    The official forecast now has no landfall in Florida. However, within the cone it still could contact the coast. There were always some models that showed this path. Now, however, the most used models agree, but there are still some outliers that have landfall. So, some cause for potential relief but still way too early to feel comfortable either in Florida or in other coastal states.

    Unfortunately, the models all have it either over or just slightly north of Marsh Harbour so considerable destruction likely in the Bahamas.
  16. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    There will always be an outlier that will be way off, it a like Comrade DeBlasio running for President :)

    The key is to look at the trend of the NHC forecast, not the line not the Cone of Deathly Hysteria Since yesterday morning it s shifted right at every advisory package

    Very telling is this paragraph from the 11am NHC discussion :

    “Although the latest guidance has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
    northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one, and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the track during future forecast cycles.”
  17. Beau

    Beau Senior Member

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    WOW, $90 that's unconscionable. Does Florida have price gouging laws?
  18. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Yes, we do and major companies have been fined heavily. Not sure they would be aware of or chase down a single dock owner.
  19. Fishtigua

    Fishtigua Senior Member

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    $90 a foot????
    That's just taking the p*ss. Period.
  20. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    I think $90 per foot is the going seasonal nightly rate in the NE US. Or at least seems like it.