Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.
As of 4:00 PM, GFS has it making landfall between Sebastian and Palm Bay. ECMWF has it making landfall over Boynton Beach. HWRF agrees with GFS, UKMET is between GFS and ECMWF. The outlier now is HMON which has it making landfall the furthest south and then running southwest across the state. The others have it crossing the state in a northwest flow except GFS has it crossing halfway and then heading north right through the middle of the state. All is at typical forecast error of 155 to 200 miles at days 4 and 5.
Looks like ECMWF has not been updated in 14 hours, as per my Windy.com menu.
Here's a shot of WPB about 30 minutes ago. Empty slips at Palm Harbor Marina. Looks like a Benetti at the fuel dock. Latest report puts landfall near here.
This one predicts landfall at Port St. Lucie:
That s the actual official NHC forecast which is really the only one to base decisions upon Models need to be interpreted and that’s way above my pay grade....
The NHC forecast is used by everything from TWC to Apps, websites etc.
MyRadar can overlay the NHC track and is very detailed.
I look at the trend of the NHC forecast. It shifted a little bit to the south yesterday but has held pretty steady today
The intensity of the hurricane in the forecast has risen. Earlier it was barely a CAT 4 projection at 130 mph, but now it's 140 mph forecast.
It is picking up wind speed VERY fast. Already 105 mph sustained wind speed. It was 50 mph, what 36 hours ago.
There are some who believe it will be comparable to Andrew, just not the same location.
Also, the GFS (NOAA) forecast now has it making landfall in Tequesta.
Right now though GFS has it making landfall at 8 PM on Monday and ECMWF has it hitting in the same place but not until 8 AM on Wednesday. A huge difference at this time.
Had to look it up: 65 miles North of my hacienda.
Too close and have friends up that way.
Crossing fingers and toes it wobble more North than West.
Allegedly going to slow to 4mph of movement as it arrives, turning to the north, creeping up the coast.
Keep in mind that the southern side of the storm will be weaker than the north side as Hurricane force winds don’t extend as far on the south side ( for a west moving system) Also, a lot less surge than on the north side and with W to SW winds we won’t have the battering waves we had for Irma.
In all fairness, the same thing happened back in 2014 when even more FEMA funds were diverted to deal with an influx of illegals at border. Even worst, about $30M were taken out of the USCG budget.
This why models should come with the same warnings as Awlgrip: “For Professional use only”
The pros know how to interpret them and reject the outliers.
As to intensity yes it has intensified but not as fast as many storms in the past. If you look at the sat loops the storm is not symmetrical with a flat spot on SW side.
Then as I posted information from professionals, guess I should have put a disclaimer saying it was not for your use. I'm just sharing information, not interpreting anything. I'm using multiple professional resources.
As of 8 AM the consensus has moved slightly south with the ECMWF still south of the GFS. The NHC official intensity is now less than that of some models such as the HCCA, HWRF, and Florida State Ensemble since some models such as the ECMWF suggest northern shear coming into effect as it moves through the Bahamas. Currently, GFS has landfall around Juno and ECMWF has it further south.
Through day 3 most models are in agreement, with the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON. However, there is still substantial difference on days 4 and 5 as to the turn to the northwest or north.
The one thing we know for sure is that it's a very strong hurricane and likely to hit further south than was being forecast a couple of days ago. The outliers that had it making landfall north of Florida no longer are there. Similarly those that had it going south of Key West have now come back in with the other models as well. Subject to a 155 mile range of error there is now much greater uniformity.
You re missing the point regarding the difference between models and forecasts
Models are just raw data out of the computers, they don’t mean much unless interpreted and analyzed which is exactly what the NHC does every 6 hours. This is why the only forecast used by everyone and everything, from the talking heads on TV to every app and site is the NHC forecast
Posting models on their own doesn’t mean much
No, I'm not missing the point at all. Forecasts are developed based on models and every forecaster I know also points out models that are different from the others. The NHC forecast moves slowly toward the consensus of the models. If you don't have interest in the models, then ignore them. The forecasters I follow reference all the different models regularly. The NHC references them as well and regularly points out the influences on their forecasts. Models are the basis of forecasts, plain and simple. The variation between models is very important to keep us aware that there are still models that don't agree with the forecast. Now, as we get into a shorter time period most of that is resolved.
48 hours ago the forecast was well north of where it is now, but there were models that were showing landfall then where the forecast shows it now. The earlier forecast was influenced by the GFS model which was well north. That's no longer the case as it's now much closer to the other models. The current forecast dismisses certain models, but that does not mean those models won't ultimately be shown accurate. The forecast does change slower than models to avoid overreaction.
We're still more than 72 hours from landfall which is now modeled between 8:00 PM on Monday and 3:00 AM on Tuesday. Tomorrow we should see more uniformity among the models and gain a greater accuracy on the forecast.
The NHC does a much better job than they once did in considering and mentioning outlier models. They once tended to ignore certain models and looked foolish when those models turned out to be accurate. On the other hand, by cooperation, the models have improved with the greatest improvement being the GFS model. This came after several years of the ECMWF consistently being more accurate and the NHC forecast being inaccurate as a result of being overdependent on the GFS. Now, for the last several years, the GFS has been more accurate than the ECMWF.
To you and Josie, stay safe you might be getting a 2 in Jacksonville.
A slight right hook, a bit of good news:
Now the NHC is predicting landfall between Port St. Lucie and Fort Pierce.
(Not good for the poor souls up there, but good for us boaters in Fort Lauderdale and further South.)