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2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.

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  1. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

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    Nice to see respected members being gentlemen. I think we all agree, we're living in legendary times.

    Thread is open. Let's stay on track and hope this hurricane doesn't!
  2. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    What a mess.
    North/West, then more north, then less north.
    The fancy models are coming together, some are still out there but P B county is the target late this afternoon.
    Tomorrow it could be B F E.

    The bands will still kick the Northern FL coast from center.

    I have had a bad feeling about this lil rain cloud since it first popped up.
  3. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Right now the target is further north, around cocoa beach and Melbourne. You can’t look at one model and call it a forecast. We won’t get a more precise idea of landfall until tomorrow night or even Friday morning.
  4. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Agreed my friend.
    Were getting ready up here. Well understood what can happen in the last hours.
    Mother nature never shows all her cards till the last call......
    You have a job ship and your personal assets to watch over. Double head aches. Stay safe and well.
  5. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    www.windy.com are forecasting gusts up to 100 kts in Fort Lauderdale.
    Hoping they are wrong, but planning for them being right.
    (Tried to upload the screen shot, File is too big)
  6. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    The problem with windy and other similar apps is that they use just one model. In this case it must be the euro which is further south than the others. At 4 days we re still to far out.

    On a positive note for south Florida a storm making landfall north is normally far less damaging than a system passing south or south west. Not only are tropical system stronger on the north side when moving west but but winds will be mostly westerly greatly reducing surge, waves and even wind impacts along the shoreline.
  7. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Windy offers three different models, GFS, NAM, and ECMWF.
  8. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Current consensus has landfall early Monday, north of Vero Beach. However, the four major models have done a bit of a change. GFS now has it hitting further up the coast as does HWRF. UKMET has it hitting around Vero Beach and HMON has it hitting around West Palm. ECMWF has it currently hitting around Boynton Beach later Monday as it has it slowing down as it crosses directly over the Abacos.

    Tomorrow is when we can expect the models to converge more and to see more accuracy.
  9. Norseman

    Norseman Senior Member

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    Windy.com has moved the landfall slightly North, yesterday the eye was at Boca Raton, today at Boynton Beach. Predicted wind gusts in Fort Lauderdale still at 108kts.
    Yes, too early for an accurate forecast, Friday should be interesting..
  10. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Yes... and the GFS paint a very different picture. That’s the problem with models becoming so available to the public. You need to be able to know which is right, which is not so right and that s a job for the pros at the NHC.
  11. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    That is if you're looking at the ECMWF model. Switch to GFS and you get a very different picture.
  12. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    The windfield upon landfall in Windy is all wrong as it shows it to be symmetrical. It never is. Hurricane and TS force wind never extend as far to the South as they do to the north (in a system moving to the west)
  13. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    The wind on Windy I'm looking at is not symmetrical. I don't know what you're looking at. The ECMWF is more symmetrical than the GFS but it still is more north than south field and the GFS extends much further north up to the point of landfall. Then as it moves up the coast it develops a huge tail and the field to the south is far greater than the one to the north. You apparently are missing that Windy has more than one model. ECMWF has other systems forcing it south while GFS has less resistance from the north.
  14. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    11 AM forecast has it becoming a CAT 4 before landfall.

    If it follows the GFS forecast it would definitely be an outlier. No CAT 3 or higher has ever landed between Fort Pierce and the GA border. Furthest north in FL was Jeanne in 2004 landed around Stuart as a CAT 3.
  15. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    ECMWF: as symmetrical as it gets

    669188B7-425A-46DB-8DE1-0CE918FDA587.jpeg
  16. Fishtigua

    Fishtigua Senior Member

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    NOAA/NHC are doing live updates broadcast on,,,,facebook. I know, I know.
  17. gcsi

    gcsi Member

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    Over the years, I’ve found the US Navy forecast to be the most reliable, less hype and just the facts.... Also like the depiction of wind fields
    upload_2019-8-29_11-44-18.gif
  18. cleanslate

    cleanslate Senior Member

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    Oh boy...Good luck to my newly found friends. Be cool , think smart, prepare the best you can, stay clear and be safe . Hope they are wrong, but looks like one of you are going to get it.
    It's all speculation for the next say 36 hours...IMO as to where it's really going to hit. Well you are all sharp , experienced boaters/yachtsmen and you'll do what's best. Again good luck to all.
  19. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    To be clear this is not a USN forecast. It is a very nice graphical representation of the official NHC forecast
  20. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Hard to say who copies who or if its the same data results from different sources.
    There are NWS leads from this USN site and their own USN data.

    Fleet Weather Center Norfolk
    https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/fwcn.html#!/warnings_tropical.html