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2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by Capt Ralph, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Kids
    Seems a lil low way out there has already been numbered TD5.
    It will be on the eastern isles Tuesday and PR by Thursday and planed to gain strength from today

    Keep your weather eyes open and stay safe,
    Ralph & Josie
  2. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Not worrying about this one (yet). It s got a lot of dry air and Sahara dust ahead and is pretty small making more vulnerable. This morning the NHC forecast some shear over NE Carib which would cause it fizzle out.
  3. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Already has a name;
    TS Dorian is forecast to strengthen over the next few days while tracking west
    northwest towards the Lesser Antilles.
    Dorian may impact the Dominican Republic late next week as a strong tropical storm.
  4. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    I think the key to this storm's future is where does it hit DR? If it stays south and plows through the mountain, well, lots of rain but end of storm...
  5. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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  6. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Fingers crossed for it to die as your kids are forecasting.
    The important part; At least three of us looking.
  7. Fishtigua

    Fishtigua Senior Member

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    The hills of PR and Hispaniola should kill off any big winds before any real power is generated.
  8. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Every time oberbthe last 25 years I ve seen a storm passed over Hispaniola or Cuba it resulted in a slight temporarily decrease in winds, maybe 20kts but not much more and usually when it gets back over open waters it spins up again. The only way a storm takes a hit is of it goes over a significant length of Cuba
  9. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    I remember your last dash east in sh** weather at the last minute when all else went west.
    I hate last minute maneuvers, yours was correct and all were safe.
    Trying to avoid this, it has a similar line.
  10. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Sunday, August 25, 2019


    Tropical Storm Dorian is slowly become better organized as environmental conditions become more favorable. Gradual strengthening can be expected over the next few days before impacting the Lesser Antilles early in the week.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
  11. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Well that statement from NHC is a real head scratcher. It doesn’t have a few days before getting to the leeward, just 36 hours.
  12. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Is this what you read? ;;
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



    WTNT35 KNHC 252334
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
    800 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

    ...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W
    ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
    ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Barbados
    * St. Lucia
    * St. Vincent and the Grenadines

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Martinique
    * Grenada and its dependencies

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
    of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
    Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
    of Dorian.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
    located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 54.8 West. Dorian is
    moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
    continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
    expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
    night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
    be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
    into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
    Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
    Caribbean Sea.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
  13. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    No I was talking about your 8:34PM post :

    36 hours isn’t “over the next few days”

  14. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    I am feared I'm missing something here. Is this the head scratcher?

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    AND

    Gradual strengthening can be expected over the next few days before impacting the Lesser Antilles early in the week.



    My text is copied/pasted from dotEDU sites and high seas private weather forecasters.
    My post #12 was from NHC to help figure your itch.
  15. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Looks like the center track of this system will keep the core more or less out of the mountains in DR and Haiti.
  16. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened since yesterday and conditions may allow for continued intensification over the next few days as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty with regards to how much it will intensify.
    Invest 98L is slowly organizing as it lifts northeastward across the western Atlantic Ocean. It maintains a high threat for further development over the next few days.
  17. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    Notice that many of the models now have it missing a direct eye strike on DR.
  18. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Just off DRs north coast. It will be a Cat1 then. When It passes, back to a TS for a short time.
    Black line is still Miami.
  19. YachtForums

    YachtForums Administrator

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    Cat 1: have a party
    Cat 2: invite your friends
    Cat 3: batten down the hatches
    Cat 4: head for the hills
    Cat 5: you got big bills!
  20. rtrafford

    rtrafford Senior Member

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    If you're still there riding out a Cat 5: you got big balls.