2019 Storm Season; Hurricane Dorian

It was 5MPH at 8PM and 6MPH at 11pm then it stalled. That s normal. Storms wobble around... I seriously doubt the forecasters at NHC we’re scratching their heads over that serial.

It went from 5 mph to 6 mph at the point in time when these guys were calling for it to stall. They were on TV stating that they were expecting it to slow down and that they were wondering when that was going to actually happen.

It's ok for you to have unmovable faith in their forecasts. Perhaps you don't have a significant asset sitting on the dune in the Treasure Coast. For those that do, the little details, the wobbles, they make a massive difference. No, I didn't record nor can I post a video link, but I know what I saw.

BTW, it was 8mph when it arrived at the Abacos. It slowed to 5 mph as it traveled though and into GB. It ticked to 6 mph at 11pm.

Hell, NOAA is on the air right now saying the exact same thing....uncertainty relative to wobbles and proximity to land.

One more...why the hell is there a cone at the next 48 hours if their computers are so ******* special? It's Mother Nature. She ain't a computer. A solar burst can shift a pressure ridge.

Show me a computer, and I can show you it go blue screen. They're tools. They don't always work. They only tend to help. If this is a Cat 1, no stress. This isn't that.

You re missing the point. Storms do not move in the linear fashion. A couple of mile speed variation is normal just like they wobble left and right. You have to look at the trend. Over at least 2 forecasts and advisory package.

I ve been playing chicken with tropical systems since the early 80s having to make decisions for my home, business, plane and boat. My house on st Barth’s was hit by Luis in 95, a slooowwww moving cat 5.

I follow a terrific blog by a couple named Chilberg who live aboard their Grand Banks 49. Alas, they were caught in Marsh Harbor by Dorian. They moved off the boat to the Abaco Beach Resort -- I am hoping for the best for them but I heard the storm surge in Marsh Harbor was 19 ft. Can't imagine their boat will be unscathed.

Some terrifying videos today (Monday) from folks in Grand Bahama. Water 5 ft deep on the first floor and rising, they are huddled and praying on the 2nd floor.

Still possible my place in Stuart could be damaged -- it's on the ICW near St. Lucie Inlet -- but whatever I suffer is nothing compared to the folks in the Abacos and Grand Bahama who will be devastated.

No, I really don't believe I am missing any points. I'm concerned about the Florida impacts of this particular storm. The experts are equally concerned. Their newer computers and programs have never made these cones of uncertainty any smaller. A few days ago, it seems, they had this going across Florida into the Gulf. Then they started shifting it east, daily, only to then shift it back west.

Again, it's mother nature. Growing up as a kid many moons ago in Miami, I understand the history and challenges. But a wiggle puts the Treasure Coast into Cat 3+. Similarly a wiggle could have put Ft Lauderdale into a higher level of peril, and that's where this nonsense began.

Odds? Odds are this misses Florida entirely beyond Cat1 impacts. But these particular odds are not played for other folks by computer models. They're played by individuals making good decisions for themselves, and cities have to manage staff, assets, and emergency egress. Hence, bridges close.

Very true. Lots of friends over there. Lives lost. Accountability for others still lagging because they're still in the mess. Boats and docks? Mostly toast. If the 49 survived, that's a heck of a story.

Look up Barometer Bob and go to the Abaco forum that seems to have the most up to date info on the devastation. Does anyone know of a reputable place to donate money?

Pretty cool shot from the Hunters' plane...

Your welcome. A little leery of go fund me but will read through the forum again. The forum has been updated with pictures. The ones of sea spray are very bad.

There are a number of efforts going on right now to bring direct relief to the people of the Abacos. The concern is that once the extend of the horror in Freeport comes to light the Abacos especially the smaller Cays and settlements will be left out in the cold. Unfortunately it looks like the Bahamas government wants everything to go thru NAS

The structure is getting pretty ragged. It s been sitting over the same pool of water for 48 hours drastically cooling its own fuel