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Guesses on Markets Returning to “Normal”

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by incoming, Jun 25, 2021.

  1. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    The 50' Hatteras with C18's cruised at 30.5 knots with just a hard top when the boat was new.
  2. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    All the talk about markets returning to normal when all that is really being asked is when will prices drop. Prices going up and dropping are both part of normal but last big drop was a recession. As to when a drop, I have no idea. However, depending on prices dropping is largely a losing strategy as over time they go up more than down. Plus when they do drop, it's generally tied to economic problems, many others of which impact boat buying negatively.
  3. incoming

    incoming New Member

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    This is a fair point. I’m not sure I disagree with you, but what I have observed over the last year seems quite different than the normal up and down cycles tied to the broader economy.

    These are some of the data points I’m considering when thinking of the current market as anomalous and temporary:

    1) I spent 4 months of the last year on our current boat with my family up and down the East Coast. Probably 1/3-1/4 of the people we met on the docks were new boaters since COVID. Most were trawlers and motor yachts, but a couple were medium size SF

    2) of the people above, I met a few people who had bought boats specifically to cruise during COVID and had no intention of keeping them. One guy told me he planned to run the boat heavily for a year, do no maintenance, and sell it effectively paying only for fuel and dockage for a boat he otherwise couldn’t afford.

    3) The class of boats I’m most familiar with - older 35-42’ sporties - has “appreciated” by up to 30% since COVID for clean, particularly well maintained boats

    I don’t know what all of these data mean if anything, but my sense is that there was a surge of demand for COVID and, economy aside, there should be a bit of a pullback. Maybe not to pre-COVID levels. Or maybe there will be a trough if inventory spikes.

    I could be wrong. But “normal” to me means no particularly unusual circumstance (like COVID) driving a surge (or plummet) in demand.
  4. DOCKMASTER

    DOCKMASTER Senior Member

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    There have been lots of threads discussing current market conditions and when/if their will be a normalization, crash or continued price escalation. Bottom line is: nobody knows what will happen and when.

    There are folks on this forum and others that I'm on that "think" they know what the market will do and when. It is simply unpredictable. Yes, there seem to be folks that bought boats to cruise during the pandemic. And then there are others that bought boats as the pandemic caused them to get off the sidelines when they have been contemplating a boat purchase for awhile. Add to the mix the supply shortages on parts and supplies and from builder's shutting down for periods of time. Then you factor in issues of trying to hire people and get things back up and running, issues around shipping and container shortages, inflation, etc, etc. How long will it take markets to normalize? What will the new normal look like? Market disruptions have occurred across the entire spectrum. Housing is crazy, the RV and Powersports markets have gone crazy. Food prices are rising dramatically, lumber is insane. The list goes on and on. Only time will tell.
  5. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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  6. wiredup

    wiredup Member

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    Boats are out there, or will be, but your wants, and budget may be tough to put together. I am about to put my 2008 Hatteras 60' GT on the market: C32's (33 knot cruise), 2 sea keepers just placed, 3 staterooms/3 heads, new carpet, electronics, etc. But the price will be over double your budget of 500k.
  7. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Anybody tried to buy new jet skis lately? Impossible to find... we sold two used SE 155 in a couple of days and cat find new Sparks to replace them.
  8. RER

    RER Senior Member

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    You can find a 2000 model Hatteras 50C with CAT 3406 power in your budget. For a 20+ year old boat it's a clear standout IMO. It's probably not going to give you the speed though. Your budget and your speed don't really match up for a 50' Convertible SF. Maybe a 43' Cabo would.

    It's going to take a lot of searching around. I don't think a slowdown in demand will have much of an impact on supply or price in this category. There just isn't a lot of boats to begin with.
  9. gr8trn

    gr8trn Senior Member

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    Don't forget to list it hear for Free:)
    wiredup likes this.
  10. Natuzzi

    Natuzzi Member

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    Could you buy them in Europe? I think we have plenty on this side of the pond...
  11. wiredup

    wiredup Member

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    will do
  12. incoming

    incoming New Member

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    GLWS, that would definitely be on my list of dream boats!

    Yep that's what I'm seeing. A ~2000 hatteras with 3406 or 3412's seems to be my target at this point. Sounds like the 3406 will still give me an honest 25kt cruise in that hull, which i could live with and be fine.

    Are there other any notable 2 stateroom convertibles in the 42-47' range that have a large second stateroom that sleeps 4? The 47' cabo comes to mind - but it looks like its really a 50' class SF with the pricing to match. Plus there seem to be some haters on the ride quality, although I wonder if that's a bit of an internet myth. Cabo 43 has a great layout and looks like it sleeps 3 in the 2nd stateroom. That may be an option, but they really don't look much cheaper.

    I wouldn't mind giving up the 3rd stateroom as long as the kids could have a friend or two come with us for the weekend without having people sleeping in the saloon. But for the 3rd stateroom i don't really need a 50' boat. I've been happy with my 38' bertram's sea handling capabilities, other than a bit too much roll on the troll.
  13. wiredup

    wiredup Member

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    Your usual models to look at in that range are Hatteras, Viking, Ocean. You can get a lot of boat for the money with Ocean Yachts, but extra thorough survey for all systems and engines is a must.
  14. alvareza

    alvareza Member

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    2004-08 Ocean Yachts 46 and 50 will both give you 3 staterooms 2 heads, cruise 26-28kts and a decent dry ride. Most will have DD series 60 engines a few c18s in the 50’ boats
  15. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    A 50' Post with 820 mans or even a newer 53' would meet everything you're looking for an well within your price range.
  16. incoming

    incoming New Member

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    The sale on my Bertram has now closed. I did better than I expected (full asking price - offer was signed and accepted within about a week of listing) so we decided to treat ourselves to a family boat shopping trip this weekend to ft lauderdale (not much to see around me in the Annapolis area).

    It was quite a frustrating experience but insightful.

    When I booked my tickets about a week ago, our primary targets were a 3412 powered 50 hat and a 47 Cabo, along with whatever else my agent thought we should see.

    By the time we headed to the airport Friday afternoon, all of the boats we’d “lined up” to see were under contract and unavailable. My broker scrambled to line up some new boats to see and we decided to continue with our trip.

    Woke up to a text Saturday morning from my agent telling me there was nothing available to see. I did a search of every 47-55’ 97-2007 ocean, hatteras, Cabo, Viking, and post in south Fl. He spent the morning calling on them. Nearly all were under contract, or in some cases already sold but still on YW fir some reason. Ultimately we were only able to see a disaster of a Viking 52 (chartered to death) and a well cared for but older than we want hat 54.

    the next day we saw a gorgeous but not on the market Viking 52

    So…the market continues to be insane. We still enjoyed ourselves but don’t plan to waste money on another boat shopping trip unless it’s to look at something we’re already holding with a deposit.
  17. JWY

    JWY Senior Member

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    "Nearly all were under contract, or in some cases already sold but still on YW fir some reason."

    I don't mean to sidetrack this discussion with commenting on the quote above, but I couldn't let it go by without taking the opportunity to comment on one of my pet peeves. Sometimes, frequently, brokers do not post "Sale Pending" until they receive an "Acceptance of Vessel." I think that is acceptable industry practice. However, the day a boat sells, the broker should change the status to "Sold." If a broker keeps it listed as "Active," then s/he can keep taking calls on it and getting new clients. "Oh sorry, that boat is sold - the secretary must have forgotten to take it off, but while I have you on the phone, let me tell you about another listing I have..." This is unfair to the seller who entrusted the broker with providing accurate and current information. Additionally, the time on market shows on the brokers' version of YW. So for example, a boat that might have been on the market for 90 days, now shows up as being on the market for 200 days. When that new owner goes to resell, it looks like something was wrong as in "why was it on the market so long the last time? Did the owner fix everything?" Brokers and owners should call the Listing Broker and ask them to mark the listing as sold and then it will be removed from the active listings. If not done immediately (it only takes one click to do so), then the broker is not ethical and should be reported to YW.
    leeky, gr8trn, mapism and 2 others like this.
  18. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

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    Yep, happens far to often. They forget to pull the ad. ;);)
  19. incoming

    incoming New Member

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    Really is a terrible practice. Of the 10 or 12 boats that were still showing on YW Saturday morning, only 1 was actually for sale. Not a single one of the others said "pending" or anything. I don't want to say it was a wasted trip, but I certainly wouldn't have spent $3k on plane tickets, hotel room, and rental car if we knew what was actually for sale (which was almost nothing).
  20. CaboFly

    CaboFly Member

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    Go pull up the 53 Post listed on YW. I emailed the broker incquiring about the boat a month ago and of course he said it was sold at which time I let him know it's YW status. Yet the boat is still on YW as sales pending today. Lame.

    Sorry about your poor experience. What did you think about the 52 Viking vs 54 Hatteras comparison?