Hurricane Ike

they did tell people who stayed behind to write their SS numbers... not the first time i heard that though...

some folks dont' get it... there was a guy unterviewed on Fox, staying home with his wife and 2 teenagers in a one story wooden house in Galveston... there has been reports of people being stranded on roofs south of galveston, and that's 6 hours BEFORE landfall.

With a possible storm surge of 7 metres things could get ugly.
Been looking at this:
http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/images/enlarged/coast06/01.html

Huge, massive sigh of relief. Storm surge didn't come close to predicted peak.

DK all the details, but 2 good things. The storm sure came nowhere near predicted and, unlike New Orleans, when the surge retreats the water doesn't get traped so there will be no long lasting floods. C.C. is to the south (weak side) so that should be good.

But surge did wreck Galveston, north end got hammered. Mayor saying tonight you can't live there. Other towns like Kemah still underwater and will be for a while. Power is out in most areas, so that measn unless you have a generator, it will be pitch black at night, and oh yeah, warm and sticky.
Houston will essentially be shut for the week, due to no power and glass still falling from high-rises. We have people on the ground there, more going in tomorrow. But folks didn't prepare well as we are getting reports already for food and water.
Check out some of the raw video on click2houston.com, look on the right side.

Oh yeah. Maybe someone should tell folks to not build homes on barrier islands.
John (Sharky), you okay? Probably no juice for the computer.

Hey guys,

Tom, thanks for asking.. All ok with me. No power or phones in The Woodlands where I live North of Houston. Could be up to 3 weeks before we have it back! Just some branches down in my yard but nothing hit the house.
Plenty of trees down around me and plenty of damaged homes.

Most of Houston is still without power all the way down to Galveston and a curfew is in place this week in Houston from 2100-0600. I am currently in the car on the way back from Dallas (air card is working and have power from the car). Drove up this morning to pick up 2 generators flown into Dallas from our Miami office and our IT Manager who flew back in from London. Dallas was as close as he could get to Houston.

Galveston is definitely a mess and unfortunately about 20,000 people stayed behind to weather the storm. They now need to be evacuated off the island. Texas A&M Maritime did sustain some damage and our Fall semester, which just started, will probably need to be moved somewhere else due to the Galveston situation. They are going to announce the contingency plan by Wednesday. Will be quite an undertaking.

Plenty of damaged and destroyed boats in Clear Lake and Galveston. Maybe you guys saw the pictures on the news. It will be quite a clean up effort.

Luckily our office/warehouse only has some minor damage and we think we might actually have power back now as the phone voicemail system is working. Even if the buisling has power it will certainly be a slow start up with many of our employees still lacking power and phone service (including myself).

Wish us luck. Fortunately, we are a lot better off than many other people in the region. Have a cool front coming through today so it will cool off a bit at least for a few days.

Keep you posted.

John

Could have been much worse. Lessons learned from the past were used for the most part.
On the economic side the Texas City refinery damage doesn't look too bad but startups aren't going to be immediate. The last thing that the US needs right now is a lengthy fuel price bump.

Glad to hear you're OK John. Might be a silver lining in this mess for someone who arranges the transport of equipment and supplies?

I know you have access to e-mail & forum postings via your Blackberry (and you can charge that in your car). Let us know if you need info or research on anything. Will post to this thread.

I feel your no-power pain. Been there. My PDA was the only contact with YF and the world 3 years ago. Power, much like health, is something you take for granted until you lose it. Hope you're back on the grid soon bro...

Thanks Carl and will stay in touch.

It is very overwhelming facing the prospect of no power for several weeks.

John

Hey John--glad to hear you're OK. It must be horrific in your neck of the woods right now. Stay safe...
The good news is the current quiet period--storm-wise--will last for a while, but according to Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground, there may be yet another bogeyman lurking over the horizon at some point before the season's end:


There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I haven't talked about much before, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that will influence when hurricane season will get more active. The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its inactive phase over the Atlantic. However, according to the latest MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to enter an active phase for the MJO over the western Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean beginning six days from now. As I mentioned above, the ECMWF and NOGAPS models are indicating the possibility of development in this region beginning about Monday of next week. So, enjoy the quiet interlude this week, because I expect by late next week there will be one new named storm in the Atlantic. The steering current pattern is not expected to change in the coming two weeks, and will favor steering hurricanes into the East Coast of the U.S. or Gulf of Mexico. By the beginning of October, I expect more recurving hurricane to occur, as the jet stream begins its annual Fall migration southward.

well, as we get into late september, the cape verde season slows down and most storm form in the western carib/southern gulf, usually tracking nortward...

hey guys, i live [or rather used to live] on galveston bay, and am a Yacht broker here, thought i would share some of my pics from IKE. I have 100's but i'll keep it to the yacht/boat ones.

Sorry guys, internet is being so slow its taking me ages to upload, will get more up soon when i get a better connection.

http://viewmorepics.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewPicture&friendID=403761933&albumId=0

this link was posted on another forum, some graphic content of damage at marinas in Galveston.

maybe someone can explain the logic behind how some owners left their boats in covered slip knowing there was a 20' surge coming... what a shame.

then we all end up pay higher premiums...

Great pix, thanks. According to my spies, at least one high-end new boat dealership in the Houston area dutifully hauled his five stock boats. Even on the hard, the second or third rinse cycle must've got 'em...where do you go? Where to hide? From looking at places/photos in the media, Winnie & Bridge City flooded out and they are 20 miles from the beach.

My google web album with the rest of my pics.

http://picasaweb.google.com/mattdoes/HurricaneIke#

I find it hard to believe that the big Hargrave didn't have a crew which could have taken it out of harms-way.

Ken, IIRC, in the day or two before Ike made landfall--and especially prior to that--the models & forecasters had this storm going anywhere from the TX/MX border to NOLA. Where does the Hargrave head for safe harbor?

I don't like to be an armchair captain but I watched the tracks pretty carefully. After it slowed over Cuba I think that the west coast of Florida, albeit on the nastier side of things, would have been my choice. I'm no hurricane tracker (I just hide up north until things calm down) but it looked much less likely to strike Tampa than it did TX.
I guess it's also possible that the crew had families, etc to worry about so I'm not passing judgment. Just saying its a shame.