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Hurricane Ike

Discussion in 'YachtForums Yacht Club' started by Yacht News, Sep 12, 2008.

  1. Yacht News

    Yacht News YF News Editor

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    As the dangerous Hurricane Ike stares the Texan coast down, I was wondering if they are any major marinas in the area with yachts. My first impression would be to flee from such a serious weather system. However, there will be no doubt people that would try to lash their boat with as many lines as possible (which sometimes does not work very well). So, from our Texan contingent on Yacht Forums, what is the story in relation to Ike in your area?

    090240W_sm.gif
    Source: National Hurricane Center
  2. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Before going to bed last night someone was predicting a 21' storm surge and saying a 1 or 2 story building would not be survivable. I pray that's just news hype, but if it is the case you can forget lashing down.
    As of 0400 seas in the western gulf are 10-15 feet and in the central gulf 20-30 feet. Maximum sustained winds were 105 mph. There is no more cruising out of its path. If anybody is still in its path, put your insurance info in your pocket and go (via land) NOW.
  3. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    the best option right now (although closing fast) is still to head south via the ICW. Even though Ike is "advertized" as a very large storm, hurricane force winds only extend 60miles to the SW. With the kind of storm surge predicted in galveston bay/houston, staying in is a recipe for disaster.
  4. K1W1

    K1W1 Senior Member

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  5. Yacht News

    Yacht News YF News Editor

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    I have no doubt that Ike will bring severe storm surge to the area of Galveston but the media has the system pictured as if it was the worst weather system ever concocted by nature. Sure yachtsmen should get out the way of the system but if it had winds like what Katrina had back in '05. I would be a little more concerned. Definitely Ike is not nothing to be played with but I think the media hype is extending a bit too much.
  6. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    At an average speed of 10 kts. a yacht can make maybe 100 by nightfall. That's well within the area Ike could turn to. Then as he approaches the skipper will be securing an then running for his life. Sorry, but what hasn't been done by now isn't getting done. No boat is worth a life. It's now time to get out via land or batten down.
  7. SharkyFHB

    SharkyFHB Senior Member

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    There is a lot of media hype for sure. The storm surge is currently the biggest worry with this hurricane as the winds have not increased as much as they thought they would even given the low pressure. Some more strengthening is expected before landfall.

    We could have a big mess in the Clear Lake area (Galveston Bay) depending on how many boats are still there. Clear Lake has a huge concentration of sailboats. I had posted some pictures in the past of some of the yachts berthed in Clear Lake and hopefully they left for calmer waters.

    Galveston and the immediate surrounding area were put under an evacuation order yesterday morning. I live just north of Houston and we are hunkering down and sticking it out.

    All going well, I need to be in Galveston on Monday night to teach at Texas A&M Maritime. Will try to get some pics and let you know how it looks assuming we have class.

    John
  8. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    for the past 1 1/5 to 2 days, the bulleye has been shifting north of Corpus Christy... when playing chicken with a storm like that, you need to look at the trend of the forecast, not the track itself. You also need to read and interpret the NHC discussion from which you get hints and clues as to where the trend is going.

    For the past 3 days, it's been increasingly clear that Ike was going to recurve to the north, the only question has been when. heading south , even yesterday, was the best option for any boat in the houston/galveston area.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

    that shift started on Wed with the 11am advisory package which was right around the 3 day mark. that's when the forecast starts getting more accurate and in any case the key is not to look at one forecast, but the trend.
  9. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Less than an hour ago the head of emergency services in Corpus Christie said they're still waiting for Ike to make the predicted turn north. Anybody still trying to move boats out of the coastal areas is brave:confused: .
    Per SharkyFHB: "Galveston and the immediate surrounding area were put under an evacuation order yesterday morning."

    BTW before Andrew rolled through south Florida the "smart ones" took their boats south from Ft. Lauderdale to get them into safe water. For the next several months I watched their hulks being towed back up for salvage.
  10. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    where to go is never an easy decision because the window is very narrow (time when the forecast is accurate enough and when the weather goes down). Plus in South Florida we have to deal with bridges closing down for evacs.

    With Ike, the odds of landfall closer to Corpus Christy have been near 0 since yesterday morning, while Galveston has always been at higher risk. The right side is where you dont' want to be because of stronger winds but also storm surge. of course, no forecast is etched in stone.

    There is alot of folklore about Andrew, how it came out of nowhere and it "suddenlye turned south"... Andrew was pretty well forecasted but the problem is that people dind't pay attention back then.

    Look at the forecasts from the 48 hours prior to andrew's landfall (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992/andrew/tropdisc/):

    INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.9N 70.4W 85 KTS
    12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 90 KTS
    24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 75.2W 95 KTS
    36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.2N 77.8W 95 KTS
    48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.4N 80.5W 90 KTS

    INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.5N 73.4W 105 KTS
    12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.4N 75.6W 110 KTS
    24HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 78.8W 115 KTS
    36HR VT 24/1800Z 25.8N 81.8W 85 KTS

    INITIAL 23/1500Z 25.4N 75.0W 115 KTS
    12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 77.3W 120 KTS
    24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 80.3W 120 KTS

    INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.4N 76.5W 130 KTS
    12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 78.8W 130 KTS
    24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.9N 81.8W 110 KTS

    INITIAL 24/0900Z 25.5N 80.0W 115 KTS

    during that time, which was decision time, the track has been shifted left (south) but not by much. about 1/2 degree. There was no suddent turn to the south, 1/2 degree is wobble territory...

    for anyone north of miami, the best option was to move north, 50 to 100 miles to play it safe... north of WPB, jupiter, etc... especially since andrew was such a small compact storm.

    For those in Miami and south, north was a good option but the keys were a possible choice as well, at least south of islamorada.

    anything between Ft Lauderdale to islamorada was a lousy idea.
  11. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    No folklore. Mine was the last boat off A1A in Ft. Lauderdale and the 1st one back. We didn't have Accuweather or even computers nor the weather chanel. We had Brian Norcross (probably spelled wrong.) We went to bed that night expecting a hit on Ft. Lauderdale/Hallendale. In Pompano we had everything piled on the second floor. In the morning everybody from Miami north said it wasn't near as bad as expected. Then the reports from Kendall and south started to come in.
  12. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    i dont' recall in what year did we start to get REAL info from the NHC... i know that in 94 (or 93) all the info that we have today was already available from NHC and other mirror site like Plymounth, Ohio State, UNC and more. 92 i'm not sure, i was still on St Barth that year and we didn't even have access to compuserve or AOL there! I do remember following Andrew (mostly via the Weather Channel by satelite, 16' dish...), I hauled out my boat there adn then following after it passed north because i already had a condo in miami.

    Pompamo to Kendal is about 30/35 miles.. it makes a HUGE differnece. that's gettting hurricnae strength winds or tropical storm...
  13. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Just checked the tide table. Real bad news on the timing.
  14. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    "Pompamo to Kendal is about 30/35 miles.. it makes a HUGE differnece. that's gettting hurricnae strength winds or tropical storm... "
    Actually I believe the track was for a hit at about Halendale. That IS still a HUGE difference in strength, but it's only a few degrees change in course a hundred or so miles out. We expected devastation from Halendale (possibly Miami) to Pompano. Instead Pompano was fine; Lauderdale lost power and the ICW from there south was clogged with debri, but no great shakes. There were thoughts that maybe it just petered out. As for the NHC I believe they got blown off the air if I recall correctly which may have been one of the first hints. Till then we were getting great info (if you were home watching TV although most of us were securing boats and boarding houses.)
    BTW, Post-Andrew thinking: My boat would have been upriver 2 days earlier and I'd have been on my way to points way north at least 24 hours before he's due to hit.
  15. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    hurricanes never move straight, they woble around, when it gets that close (Hallandale to Kendal) it comes down to luck and timing fo the wobles.

    if you look at the coordinates, they were pretty much around 25.5/25.7 all along, that's pretty good

    the one thing that NHC sucks at, and they admit in their own discussions, is intensity forecast. that's why one can never take it for granted that a storm will remain weak before landfall...
  16. SharkyFHB

    SharkyFHB Senior Member

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    There has been a fire at the Galveston Yacht Basin. It appears to have been contained to the dry storage building. Unfortunately, flooding prevented the firemen from getting to it. Still looking at a potential 20 foot storm surge in Galveston Bay.

    John
  17. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    At this point whatever will be will be. Just heard that the CG has grounded their choppers for the duration, but that several people are riding it out on Galvaston Island and elsewhere in the coastal area. Now is the time for hopes and prayers. Good luck to all.
  18. SharkyFHB

    SharkyFHB Senior Member

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    One of my employees lives on the island and up until a few hours ago was going to ride it out. We finally convinced her otherwise and she left. I think that the authorities telling those who stay to write their social security #'s on their arms also helped sway her.

    John
  19. YachtForums

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    Are you serious?
  20. SharkyFHB

    SharkyFHB Senior Member

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    Yes, they told people to put identifying marks on themselves if they stayed. Emergency personnel are moving just inland for the night, so any people staying on the island are on their own. Will be a rough night down there.

    Much of Galveston Island will be under some amount of water as the storm will be making landfall at high tide. We even have the surge now pushing up into the bayous around Houston.

    Also, there is a bulk carrier in the Gulf that lost power with 22 crew on board. For now, the CG had to call off the rescue attempt. Must be scary for them.

    Some pretty good pics and coverage on the Houston Chronicle website: http://www.chron.com/

    John