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Riding the next wave...

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by airship, Aug 18, 2006.

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  1. airship

    airship Senior Member

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    How many of us wished that we'd merely invested say $2,000 in Microsoft back in the early '80s which would now be worth well over $1/2 million...?! And to think that there I was, actually selling some of those very first IBM PCs which came with the ubiquitous MS-DOS back then... :eek: (Where's the [cry-heaps] smilie BTW?)

    Well, a few years ago, and well after I'd decided to kiss-off a real life by choosing yachting, the Rodriguez Group became a public-quoted company. Someone over there even offered me a job once, I cried off, thinking "nah, it won't last". Yet, here we are in 2006, their employees continue to be paid huge annual bonuses... [cry-heaps]

    But the reason for this post, is the literal tsunami progress of the Ferretti Group in recent years.

    On the one hand, (I'm no financial whizzkid - but you've probably gathered that by now...), I think I can almost understand the reasons for success:

    1) Italian yacht-building has always been a family affair.
    2) Italians don't particularly like paying taxes if they can avoid them (but then again, who does?), which is fine until you want to sell up (perhaps because none of the kids wanted to follow in their father's footsteps?) and it becomes difficult to convince a buyer that your enterprise is actually very profitable if all you've officially done is at best "break even" for the last few decades... ;)
    3) All the Italian yacht-building industry was waiting for was sufficient capital "in order to release the assets that were already there" (in a Heineken beer sense of course!)

    On the other hand, I'm not convinced that the intergration of a major swathe of formerly independent yacht-builders necessarily justifies the phenomenal market success of recent superyacht behemoths... :confused:

    For starters, could someone here explain the thinking/strategy behind a company like the Ferretti Group, originally privately-owned, going public, then going back to being privately-owned and shortly afterwards, perhaps later this year or in 2007 according to the quoted news report, going back to being a publicly-quoted company? [even more :confused: ]

    Will Italian yachts one day be available in any colour the customer desires, provided it's black (thinking about the Ford T)...?! :)
  2. CaptTom

    CaptTom Senior Member

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    Airship,
    Okay I'll bite and try to give some reasoning to one of your questions.
    You asked "For starters, could someone here explain the thinking/strategy behind a company like the Ferretti Group, originally privately-owned, going public, then going back to being privately-owned and shortly afterwards, perhaps later this year or in 2007 according to the quoted news report, going back to being a publicly-quoted company?"

    One main reason a company goes public is for cash resources. You sell shares in your company and get an influx of money. That money helps you build better products, garnering more income. You see the value in the product, or want to improve your earnings per share ratio, so you start buying back your stock and go private again, to keep the profits for you and not have to share them with shareholders. Norberto Ferretti may be a boatbuilder, but he is more so a businessman. He could be making widgets or model-T's, doesn't make a difference. He is a good businessman. When he goes public again, he may be looking for another shot of cash for his next best thing (going public rather than taking on rich partners). See the cycle. And look, he has surrounded himself with some of the best yacht lines in the business.
    BTW, I'm no financial wiz, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. LoL:D
    Capt Tom
  3. airship

    airship Senior Member

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    Hee hee, well I stayed at the Singapore Holiday Inn way back in 1987 at the company's (yacht) expense... :D and the last time I stayed at a Holiday Inn was in, uhmmm, 1987... :eek:

    Going back to the report though:
    As I was saying, converting $4m from an initial investment in 1998 into $222m 3 years later in 2001 is some going, even by Microsoft standards...if they do go back to being a publicly-quoted company, do you reckon it'd be worth putting in say $2,000 (I'm only trying to make up for all those years I spent on superyachts when I never paid any social security or anything towards a government pension)...?! :(
  4. TomTom

    TomTom Member

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    it. yachtind. developement

    if you want to understand market figures of one company - in which status ever you just can recognize it - you must see the whole market.

    Perhaps there evolved some not so public working rules, because of the big
    changes in the italian politics. It is conceivable that a lot of it. CEOs tried to break their way free in a similar way their former president did it - if the media were right with their reports. That's impossibile to judge from outside.

    But there are several changes on other relevant companies, too! In the magazins of the last month i saw advertises of Camper & Nicholsons that now is a part of the Rodriguez Group, based in Italy. Looking on their webside they are calling themselve "the worldleaders in luxury yachting". Their brands are growing, their range is wide.
    So perhaps there's at least one race running. Looking at the other big shipyards there, perhaps some more.
    All in all (to follow the media) it looks as if you will get the boat you want when you put your money in a bag, fly to Bella Italia and travel down the coasts, who ever will build the vessel at the end.

    ... and for me as a northern european the designs from there sometimes are very nice and great to watch.

    TS
    TSOE.com
  5. ychtcptn

    ychtcptn Senior Member

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    If I was investing, I would stay clear of the Italian boat building business. I believe that in the next 5 years (I used to say 10) that the Italian product will be non existant in the states. I do not think that they will be able to compete on a price point with the Chinese/Tiawan products that are now coming out.

    From first hand experience I have seen a pull back allready in the sales of thier product here in the US. Marinemax has all but stopped ordering any large Ferretti's for stock boats and ARBMG is still sitting on at least 4, they had 5 but the owner of the Company recently bought one.
    Do the rough numbers-

    112 Westport +- 8.5 mil.
    116 Azimut +- 12 mil
    100 Hargrave +- 6 mil

    At these price differences the europeans are going to be killed on this side of the pond. I would be very nervous if I was a dealer for Italian/european product in the US.
  6. airship

    airship Senior Member

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    Interesting points from ychtcptn.

    I'm not so sure that the pricing aspect of Italian / other European yachts compared to US-built ones in the larger 60-130ft "production" or "semi-custom" types is all that critical though. Generally-speaking, I'm under the impression that so far as yachts (and why not luxury cars?! *) are concerned, US clients are willing to pay a premium over buying "locally". It's somewhat surprising to hear that US distributors of this size of yacht actually carry an important stock - perhaps there are valid reasons for this such as: manufacturer / distributor agreements and exclusivity; the distributor wanting stock in order to offer immediate delivery and an edge over other agents so as to satisfy the latest "I want it NOW" culture; or that the boat-builder is introducing newer models at a much faster rate than was envisaged...? And reading the market incorrectly. Or perhaps the market for this size of yacht is already "softening" (if one follows the wisdom that what happens in the US this year will surely hit the rest of the world the next, perhaps it makes sense that a yachting conglomerate might choose to go public again now when things are generally still rosy, looking forward to being able to take the group private again in another year or 2 relatively cheaply when the "****e hits the fan"...?! ;)

    * You could buy a Subaru offering a similar performance (and not yet a Taiwanese or Chinese-built product) for a fraction of the cost of a Ferrari or Mercedes...and yet that's still not enough to change people's ideas?!

    Which is why I believe that the threat from boat-builders in China is way over-rated and still a long way off. It's when the Chinese become the primary suppliers for workboats, shrimpers, and oil-industry service vessels within the US that folk should begin to worry... :) Having said that, the recent award of a USCG contract worth $600 million to build 180 boats in order to replace the ageing 41 footers they currently use might speed the process (BTW, that's $3.3 million per -50ft boat)...for that price, I'd expect both Italian exterior-styling and a Terence Disdale interior, to go with the Christian Dior machine-gun mountings...?! :eek:

    Why can't I ever post in a short and succinct form?! :eek:

    Getting back to the real thrust of the thread: why are we not seeing the same type of consolidation of the industry as demonstrated by the Ferretti Group in Italian yacht-building occuring elsewhere?! :confused:
  7. OutMyWindow

    OutMyWindow Senior Member

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    Actually we are, most recently with Microsoft making a HUGE stock buyback, and I do believe that automotive companies sell and buy back their own stock frequently as well.
    http://news.com.com/Microsoft+plans+massive+stock+buyback/2100-1014_3-6096631.html
    http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/041702.asp

    Referring to China as a viable Boat builder, they are "here and now", based on a list of the "Top Ten Building Nations", China ranks #6 with Italy as #1. USA #2
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2006
  8. Loren Schweizer

    Loren Schweizer YF Associate Writer

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    What a great thread here with a lot of food for thought.
    I would posit, airship, that there are growing stormclouds here in the U.S. which will not bode well for it's trading partners either. As the consumer-driven economy falls off, and U.S. GDP falls to 3 or less by Q4, boatbuilders will certainly take it on the chin.

    The oldtimers who witnessed Chris-Craft's ( among others) rise&fall and rise&fall are aware of one of boatbuilding's major axioms: Growth Kills.

    The small, family-owned builders ( all the Jersey guys, for example) have traditionally battened down their hatches in the face of economic ill winds and survived through numerous downturns.

    The companies that do go public need pretty impressive numbers in which to separate the suckers, er, potential shareholders from their largesse. Gotta build those boats and put 'em in some dealers inventory.

    A caveat here, though: I don't claim to know what the newly-minted yachtsmen/yachtswomen have in mind when/if the fertilizer hits the horizontal ventilator. :D Heck, it takes a few years to do a megayacht anyway.

    But I think for the sub-hundred-foot builders, now is the time, as hunters are wont to say, to husband one's resources.
  9. OutMyWindow

    OutMyWindow Senior Member

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    But in reality, there is more money to burn on things like Yachts than ever before, the Millionaire and Billionaire list is growing very rapidly on a daily basis with a lot of people looking for things to amuse themselves with, there has never been such unprecedented wealth as at the present, and this is not counting all the millions of people that are sitting on personal real estate fortunes without cashing it in and touring the world on their yacht.

    http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/19/pf/millionaire_spectrem/index.htm
  10. Loren Schweizer

    Loren Schweizer YF Associate Writer

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    Amen to that, outmywindow, amen.
    In further support of your thinking, it seems that following an economic downturn, the yact biz just seems to get ever stronger. Got my fingers crossed!
  11. OutMyWindow

    OutMyWindow Senior Member

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    So True, the "wealth index" doesn't lie. If the Yacht Industry suffers because of an economic downturn, it's not due to lack of able clients, but perhaps a lack of; yachting interest, moral/environmental issues, or savvy yachtsmen that are waiting for the economic downturn to force yacht prices down before purchasing.