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Coronavirus Covid 19 and Marine Industry

Discussion in 'YachtForums Yacht Club' started by olderboater, Feb 29, 2020.

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  1. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Money
  2. Capt J

    Capt J Senior Member

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    Same here in Broward County. I don't see a family being out on their boat a problem. They're quarantining themselves to their boat..... far away from other boats. Everyone has nothing else to do.

    Here they closed all Non-essential businesses in Broward county, BUT Marina's, fuel docks, docking, marine supplies are STILL OPEN and considered essential.

    page 7 SEE ff.
    https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus..._gWrlAv2JGbGQCBiNKdkaSKVFG5gsSa97BDLvuxE2pLlA
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  3. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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    The demographics were not in their favor as they had a pretty high average age. That said, because of the high number of patients REALLY needing hospital care they turned a lot of younger patients away that normally probably would have been admitted. The death toll has been higher in that group as a result.
  4. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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    You normally strike me as a reasonably intelligent and informed man. Why don't you do some studying and try to get your head around this. Eventually you will see the light when the numbers really go out of control......for now you're not getting it. This is a non-human virus to which NO ONE has immunity that requires hospitalization for a lot of people, soon WELL in excess of our hospital capacity, a large number of whom develop serious complications leading to ARDS (Acute Respiratory Deficiency Syndrome) which is usually a one way street. Total internal organ failures (kidneys/liver) are common. It's not a pretty death. There is no herd immunity and the numbers are increasing exponentially with no relief in sight. This is a serious health crisis.

    It is very possible that you were in the large percentile that had it and got over it. There is no telling how many people you infected while contageous, the number could be in the tens which by now has translated into hundreds. (Not meant as a personal attack on you.)
  5. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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    While you are correct in principle, there is no time or mechanism to quickly educate, communicate and enforce rules that let some out, and some not. Some are out on their boats in numbers large enough be an issue. At this point "Everyone stay the f4ck home" is all we have.
  6. timvail

    timvail Senior Member

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    This is about science and math regarding how this virus spreads unchecked at this point. It is also concerning how it reacts with the immune system for each individual that is unfortunate to get it. There are models out there that show the best and worst case scenario depending on what degree of separation the masses our given. No cure, no vaccination available, if you get it hope it dosent kill you. Resourcses in some countries are streached to the limit. Im not happy with those odds. We self isolate and try and make the best of it. I dont physically vist the grandkids or friends, I dont want to take a chance on them either, nor do they. Yes its difficult. How about people think about others for a change, follow the science and the math. If that dosent convince you to self isolate, then think of others you care about. Listen folks, this covid-19 thing has the ability to cause alot of health and financial devastation to our countries. We see other examples in other countries each morning. How about a Little Common Sense... Please.
  7. PacBlue

    PacBlue Senior Member

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    We are all limited to the information/stories on the internet unless we happen to have family or friends in red zones.

    I have read the opposite from what you state, that their have been older people in Italy sent home with the virus as they treat younger age groups on the basis of a better possibility of recovery success.

    https://www.jsonline.com/story/spor...italy-self-quarantine-coronavirus/5056346002/

    So we need to understand that none of us get the full spectrum of stories/information on the real day to day situation from the Internet only.

    As I said before, looking for the tipping point in the US. What is the number in a population base of 330 Million that drives change? Statistically, as a nation, we have shown a high degree of mortality tolerance in other sectors - conflicts abroad, auto deaths, standard influenza's, drug overdoses, heck even deaths by violent crime. I think that is what is being stated by others and it is not off base. Our national behavior amongst the population, businesses and politicians seems to imply we are not there yet (tipping point). For instance, businesses of necessity are open - when is the last time you have seen them do a complete sterilization/cleaning of these facilities that are open and used day to day, from head to toe, including the entrances, walkways, all physical surfaces, HVAC systems? Long way to go if you ask me, and if history of Influenza is any indicator, I would swag the US number of at least 10,000+ as an observation only.
  8. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    There is nothing wrong with a family being out on their boat except that it doesn't lend itself to keeping at least 6' of separation between the family members and increases their chance of infection if only slightly. The problem is that boating is a social activity. We want to invite our friends along, have raft-ups and beach parties. But this is why most of the social distancing measures are voluntary. Nobody is going to jail yet for shaking hands with a stranger. All should be aware though that there will be a social stigma attached to people who act ignorant or careless. Hopefully that will be enough to keep most people smart and healthy. So if you want to go out and catch some fish for dinner sure, why not. But forget the raft-ups and such for the safety of your family and friends. Remember that we're at the very start of this. It will be getting a whole lot worse before it gets better, and we all have a responsibility to do our part to stop the spread. I like to think that most boaters are responsible and safety minded.
  9. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    There's a couple of aspects of the virus' effect on the marine industry I'm curious about, and they may be more timely indicators of it's effect than sales which can take months to put together.

    1) Anybody who has ever crewed on a private yacht knows how cramped the crew quarters are, how close crew interacts with the owners, guests and each other, but that crew live very separate lives once they hit port. Is anybody having trouble getting crew or are they hesitant to hire crew?

    2) This is the time when boats start heading to their summer ports up north or over in the Med. Are they still planning to move, and what are transport captains running into as per finding fuel and dockage and places to eat along the way. I used to so look forward to dinner at Coinjocks and a few other places along the way. I also know that those transports left me exhausted which today might leave one weakened and more vulnerable to infection. What's happening on the transport scene?
  10. RER

    RER Senior Member

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    On the west coast, owners are giving captains the order to bring their boat home. Boats in Cabo are heading home to California in large numbers. There is confusion about USA- MX border closure. I’ve heard of some who are running the border and going directly to their marina without contacting CBP.
    Panama Canal is closed to non essential traffic. I know of a 90 foot sport fisher who is stuck trying to transit to the west coast. Told it’s a no-go until further notice.
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  11. Kevin

    Kevin YF Moderator

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    Just a simple set of numbers I saw yesterday... take from this what you will:

    0-100,000 cases = 3 months
    101,000 - 200,000 cases = 12 days
    201,000-300,000 cases = 3 days
  12. Rodger

    Rodger Senior Member

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    I had a call from a dealer in the great lakes who was having three new yachts delivered from England and the ship that usually brings them would not be making the trip to the great lakes until the end of June, they had a chance to put them on another ship but would have to unload them in Montreal around the third week of April but the problem there was the Montreal section of Seaway will not take yachts until May 8/20 which is a problem as marinas are not open then.
    Not sure what they will do.
    I have had a few phone calls from Captains who come north every year and am waiting a few days until this border thing worked out.
    At this time anyone entering Canada must be quarantine for fourteen days.
  13. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    Does anyone know if the same applies when entering the U.S. from Canada? If so a simple transport across the lakes could cost a transporter a full extra month.
  14. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Thanks to NYCAP, RER and Rodger for reverting back to the topic which is the impact on the Marine Industry.

    As to recreational boating, when Palm Beach and Miami Dade closed their beaches then many recreational boaters used their boats to circumvent the beach closures and head to sand bars and use those as beaches. Others were rafting up to have parties. Had they simply gotten in their boats and gone boating, there would have been no issues. Meanwhile cruisers are dealing with the issue of different rules and laws everywhere and a lot of marinas closed to transients, especially city owned marinas. While these things have short term impact, not likely long term. Similarly, loopers are facing uncertainty and many may cancel but they're not a huge impact on boating at large.

    In response to NYCAP's questions on crew and on spring movement, I think you're seeing a lot of things on hold right now. No one knows. Some crew out of jobs, at least for now. Boat moves on hold but the crucial times haven't hit yet.

    RER mentions borders and you're seeing that in the PNW, on the Great Lakes and between California and Mexico. I know Alaskans trying to get home from Washington, which requires a trip through BC.

    Longer term we're talking about the impact of a downturn, of a recession, or a depression, depending on where we end up. Either will impact boat sales of all sizes and shapes. Some of that is already being felt by builders who will discuss only in privacy. They're getting questions about cancelling orders or requests to put orders on hold. People waiting a little longer to insist on cancelling. I think if we see orders cancelled, we'll also see less usage of boats as business persons required to turn their energies elsewhere.

    In the US, for lake boats, this is peak boat show season. Shows in March often kick off the selling season in most of the country. I knew dealers in NC whose biggest selling months of the year were March and April. The selling season in those areas was short and was really only four months of strong sales, March through June. Sales of new boats in NC come to a screeching halt on July 4.

    Rodger refers to a major problem for dealers on the Great Lakes. Getting new boats delivered there in the end of June is worse than not getting them at all. They become inventory you have to carry all year and then they become year old boats you're trying to sell. If they're already sold boats, then depending on the contract, they may quickly become unsold.

    If the shutdown lasts no more than a month in most places, then you'll see the industry hurt but recoverable. If it's longer, it's 2008 all over again. All the recovery gains lost. We also have issues of ownership of boat builders. Some owners are largely in other businesses. Wanda Group owns Sunseeker. They're in theaters, tourism, and sports, all industries badly hurt. Will they continue to support Sunseeker and all the others? What about Genting Group, key investors in Grand Banks? Casinos, Resorts, Tourism, and Cruise Ships. Fortunately for them, Grand Banks is a very small investment compared to their others.

    I don't think we have very many conclusions we can be sure of until we know more about the duration of the crisis.

    I try to follow deaths since new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing. In the US, we're about 10 days behind Europe. I'm hoping that we'll see fewer deaths in Europe this week than last. If so, that would mean our peak might be early April. Now, a warning, Hong Kong got confident and eased up and they've see a rise in new cases. I think just declining numbers won't mean you've beaten it. You have to get them very low and keep them there.
  15. Rodger

    Rodger Senior Member

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    They are asking you to go into self quarantine but many snow birds returning from the south are not doing that.
    Will be interesting to see what happens when a pilot boards a foreign ship in Montreal which will start April 1/20
    Seaway Notice
    The St. Lawrence Seaway Management CorporationCorporation de Gestion de la Voie Maritime du Saint-LaurentRégion Maisonneuve151, rue de l’ÉcluseSt-Lambert, QuébecJ4R 2V6Tél : (450) 672-4115 Fax : (450) 672-8493Niagara Region508 Glendale AvenueP.O. Box 370St-Catharines, OntarioL2R 6V8Tél : (905) 641-1932 Fax : (905) 641-57212020 – Not ice to Sh ipping #7MAI SONNEUVE REGIONMONTREAL / LAK E ONTARIO SECTIONSLSMC Preventive Measures for COVID-19 The St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation has put a series of measures in place to ensure the continuity of operations in the Montreal – Lake Ontario (MLO) section for both domestic and ocean vessels. These measures are designed to maintain an efficient transportation system while safeguarding the welfare of all personnel. We are continuing to follow the evolving situation and are working to ensure that lock operations will be reliable when commercial navigation resumes on April 1, 2020 (MLO). For ocean vessels coming into the St. Lawrence Seaway, adherence to the 96 hour advance notice of arrival to the Government of Canada is essential. In addition, all crew members of domestic and ocean vessels must be monitored for symptoms of the virus andnotice must be immediately provided to the St. Lambert Traffic Control Centre of any confirmed or suspected cases of the virus on board, prior to Seaway inspectors boarding the ship. New restrictions on transportation mean that all cruise ships carrying 500 or more people will be prohibited from entering Canadian waters. Consequently, cruise ships should monitor Transport Canada communication channels for further updates, as these stipulations may change in the future. Please note that there may be limited capacity to assist ships requiring mooring lines for a lockage at a lock equipped with Hands-Free mooring. Operators of such ships requiring the use of mooring lines are required to contact the St. Lambert Traffic Control Center. The Traffic Control Center will advise on the order of turn and estimated schedule for lockage. In addition, in order to protect our employees, limitations to interfaces will be implemented. Further details are available in the Seaway Notice No. 10 - 2020. Please be assured, the current health crisis related to Covid-19 has our full attention and the situation is being constantly monitored. We will keep you informed of any changes. Maisonneuve RegionMarch 20 , 20 20
  16. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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    Yes...... it's called exponential growth. And the further you go forward the scarier they get.
  17. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

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    Yeah, boats don't tend themselves. Had I not been on ours yesterday, would have had some water damage from a Air handler pan drain leak. Being on a private boat is probably one of the safer places to be....but not a cattle boat!
  18. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Bahamas update. All ports and airports closed as of this morning. 24 hour curfew except for essential travel (getting food, etc). All public beaches closed.
    All till March 31.

    we re on our way back to Miami which is considering a stay home order as well. Two charters rescheduled so far, hoping things calm down before the next one 4/12. The Bahamas can not afford to be shut down for more than a week. All hotels are closed , all staff later off.
  19. NYCAP123

    NYCAP123 Senior Member

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    All small businesses need to be contacting their Congressional Representatives and Senators TODAY to make sure they're represented in the bill they're trying to put together RIGHT NOW, today. Charter boats are "small businesses". Tell them No Slush Funds or Lobbyists, no Pork or Pet Projects. No Corporate Bailouts. Get protection for workers and small businesses FIRST. Don't count on this being over in 2 weeks...nor 2 months. This will go on until a vaccine is found.
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  20. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Well there is a lot of help for small businesses in there, what doesn’t belong is the pork like $35M for the Kennedy Center, fuel regulations for airlines etc
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