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Coronavirus Covid 19 and Marine Industry

Discussion in 'YachtForums Yacht Club' started by olderboater, Feb 29, 2020.

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  1. RER

    RER Senior Member

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    I've received between yesterday and today dozens of emails from different companies from car rental to banks to airlines all with the same claptrap about how they care about my health and safety and their employee health and safety and the cleanliness of anything with their logo on it and they are with me in spirit no matter where this journey takes us and if there is anything they can do to make this easier to get through all I have to do is ask.

    And I can fly to Denver for $50 round trip!
  2. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

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    I'm afraid it might well be the case, CJ.
    Mind, I'm not saying this because, as the old saying goes, misery loves company.
    Far from that, and I sincerely wish I'll be proven wrong.
    But sadly, there's not one single logical reason why what is currently happening throughout Europe will not similarly affect the US.
  3. PacBlue

    PacBlue Senior Member

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    The interesting part is when they correct the death total from the 1918 flu epidemic of 50 Million to current day totals , that equals 200 Million out of today’s 7.8 Billion world population, still at the typical overall rate of 2.5% for flu types.
  4. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    I've gotten emails from everyone on my mailing list. Most are talking about what they're doing and then what you should do. Trying to reassure customers that they're doing the right things. All 50 or so I've received read basically the same.

    As the industry, Fort Lauderdale West Marine employee tested positive. As to the greater industry, Chinese manufacturers back in operation. Most lost about 6 weeks of production. Meanwhile, Italian builders just shut down.

    Now, I think being able to build is only minor in the total impact. I expect to see a severe industry reduction in volume. I have already heard that some buyers of both Chinese and Italian boats have asked about cancelling orders. Now the question is when the builder says "no" and the buyer says he's cancelling, what will happen. If it's like ten years ago, they'll walk away from deposits and the builder will be stuck with a boat they've started and no sale. People will back off of making large purchases. How long it will take to return to previous levels we'll see. Last time it too......well, we never had enough years. The new peak was still under the previous. It took perhaps 5 years just to reach a new norm.

    Just as there are individuals living from paycheck to paycheck, there are many businesses in very precarious financial conditions. How many of those will fail even if this is short lived. I don't think Sears can survive a one day windstorm.

    For the Boating Industry, I think of not the builders but all those providing support and services. Rebuilds get delayed. Trips get delayed. We've seen the service industry to the cruise lines in Port Everglades decimated already. People are simply now unemployed and Florida's unemployment pay is absurdly low. There's a legal aid for employees that has been proposed and not implemented. Normally your unemployment claims push your rate of unemployment tax up dramatically. It was proposed that those unemployed due to the Coronavirus not count against the employer's record.

    Look at all the people hurt by the cancellation of the Palm Beach Show. Salesmen, Builders, Suppliers, but also all the help in getting boats in and out, in setting up, in helping during the show.

    If you're not use to this area, you might notice nothing strange when out on the water. As someone who goes past Port Everglades regularly and who travels by water to Palm Beach and Miami, the past two days have definitely been different. Definitely reduced activity. Saw a couple of cruise ships leaving for the Virgin Islands. One Princess ship apparently circling, going from Port Everglades to Port Everglades.

    An interesting question. Is the marine industry part of the tourism industry? Certainly closely tied and impacted similarly. Tourism suffering here and elsewhere. Well many South Florida boat owners use their boats like others use hotels and live elsewhere and fly in. So, for them, this is tourism. The popular time frame in today's remarks was 8 weeks from today. That's a long time and yet it could be much longer. Tell me this is all over in 8 weeks and I'll take it.

    I've heard of two yacht owners with yachts in South Florida, one just over 100' and one in the 160' range, who chose yesterday and today to lay off all their crew but their captain. Now, lay off is a term I don't like because in most cases it means terminate. There will be a lot of people use Coronavirus as an excuse to do things like that.

    Boating is a luxury. Luxury businesses are always hit hardest by recessions.
  5. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

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    +1, and without thinking twice.
  6. PacBlue

    PacBlue Senior Member

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    The marine industry is like a rubber band, it gets stretched and snaps back and gets stretched again, the next cycle is always not that far off. The core is resilient because of the passion it requires to be in the industry as well as own a boat or yacht.
  7. mapism

    mapism Senior Member

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    Yup, that's more true of pleasure boat industry than most others, but only up to a limit.
    After the post-subprime financial meltdown, with its long lasting effects, you would never believe how many Italian boatbuilders closed for good.
    Some of which, even if totally unknown in the US, were actually among the very best, sadly.
  8. PacBlue

    PacBlue Senior Member

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    Yes, but the buyers habits have changed. People are using their recreational dollars differently. The OB market has exploded. Where there is failure there is also opportunity.

    Sub-prime meltdown is not the Marine Industries fault, we can just respond, but measuring our Industry by those levels is less and less on target as we realize a certain amount of buyers have left the recreational boat buying market for other diversions.
  9. Fishtigua

    Fishtigua Senior Member

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    Not clean but very funny.
  10. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Nice letter in from IMTRA today.
    I luv that company.
  11. Oscarvan

    Oscarvan Senior Member

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    Very funny, and embarrassingly true.
  12. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    WEC Cancels Sebring

    At the last minute, countless vendors, suppliers, crews of every kind were canceled.
    Cars are already there or still in transit.
    Fine, Reopen in November but how can the finances be recovered to pay for what was already in motion?
    Who can afford to come back in November.
    Shipping cars, backup, spares and crews around the world is not cheap.
    It takes lap money and if no laps are made some crews don't survive.
  13. GhostriderIII

    GhostriderIII Senior Member

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    Very true. I might become tired of eating fish by June
  14. Kevin

    Kevin YF Moderator

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    The WEC canceled the Friday race at Sebring and a day later IMSA canceled the 12 Hours on Saturday.

    Coming back in November won't be an issue for the IMSA teams as they are all based in North America.

    At this time there has been no announcement from the WEC about them coming back to Sebring for the November race. In fact it's highly unlikely as their usual schedule is Oct in Japan, November in China, and December in Bahrain. No time to swing back this way.
  15. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    A lot of postponements have time periods and dates attached which are rather worthless at this time. We close school for two weeks. What makes anyone think that things will be better in 2 weeks? Even the NBA went for 30 days. Baseball delayed two weeks. I read postponed until xxx....but no one knows what is going to happen in the next couple of months. All the other activities pushed back may make those future dates unavailable. Reality is things are cancelled until we figure things out post Covid 19.

    As an aside, Port Everglades, Stock Island, and the Bahamas have sure turned into cruise ship parking lots.
  16. bayoubud

    bayoubud Senior Member

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    Same with the boats shows and numerous other businesses. Just now beginning to see how all are being affected as large events are being canceled and shut down. Not good but no other option.
  17. Pascal

    Pascal Senior Member

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    Wonder where they’re going to dock all these cattle ships... raft them up ? :)

    the two week period makes sense since the incubation time frame is two weeks. It could be expanded if needed and may be.
  18. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    CDC's been talking two months. If you look at China it was about two months. That all assumes just one wave. We'll follow Italy closely to see how long they take. Right now we're just starting the upswing into it with an increasing number of cases each day. We have no idea how many cases in the US as we've only tested 15000 people so far. Still there will be a period of rising numbers of cases, followed by leveling off, then decline, then at the point you're not seeing many new cases you can start a 14 day countdown.
  19. Rodger

    Rodger Senior Member

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    The Welland Canal will open March 24/20 and Montreal section of the Seaway will open one week latter April 1/20 do to high water. It will be interesting to see what effects it has on shipping especially the ships from Europe and the boarding of pilots.
    We had our first case yesterday and schools are closing for three weeks and local cities and Niagara Falls are closing everything down. I have had many phone calls from owners and captains of yachts that come to Great Lakes every summer inquiring on how things are here. There has been talk about closing borders will have to wait and see what happens. I returned on February 26/20 from a two week Caribbean Cruise out of Fort Lauderdale and have had no problems.
  20. PacBlue

    PacBlue Senior Member

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    You can take a half empty or a half full approach, anything you want, but 14 days is a given for self quarantine and some schools of thought feel like a reassessment of the spread and magnitude every two weeks is substantiated others feel like 30 days while some have “postponed” indefinitely.

    It really doesn’t matter if your are talking 2 , 4 or more weeks as the situation is fluid and changing daily. To feel as those long term shut downs must be administered right now just plays into those human born fears of control or lack of control that we are seeing with the hoarding of TP and other things.

    The fear factor is overwhelming many of our population and the negative spin doctors serve no community purpose in managing crisis control.
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