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The Global Order Book 2014

Discussion in 'General Yachting Discussion' started by RUSSLAND, Dec 14, 2013.

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  1. RUSSLAND

    RUSSLAND Member

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  2. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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  3. Capt Ralph

    Capt Ralph Senior Member

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    Cheating? I'm confused also.
    Must be an english translation buffer error again. Hate it when that happens.
    ,rc

    Anybody out there remember L0003 errors on DEC machines? TBEs?
  4. RUSSLAND

    RUSSLAND Member

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    Some shipyards claim that they build the vessel, but we know for sure they do not doing this.
  5. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Well, the vessel numbers are checked and the records verified. Are there perhaps some few errors? I'm sure. But the relative numbers of the report would seem to be quite reasonable. Now there are in all countries some amount of hulls imported and finished there. Honestly, looking at the entire list, the only one that surprised me was Sanlorenzo. Similarly it was clear the Dutch builders and Lurssen built the largest. Of course outside of Benetti, they are the ones who dominated the custom builders. Now if you made the cutoff lower than 80', Ferretti and the British builders would jump up the list. As to who the leading builders are it's all how you define it, but clearly Benetti is the largest.

    Who are you accusing? Seems a bit bold to make such an accusation because you're not just attacking a shipyard's integrity but that of Showboats International.
  6. K1W1

    K1W1 Senior Member

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    Hi,

    It would not be the first time this has been called into question.

    Are you familiar with the term Checkbook Journalism?
  7. RUSSLAND

    RUSSLAND Member

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    Let me note that i do not accuse Showboats International. I suppose that the data firsthand is being provided by the shipyards, and then the magazine publishes this data in good faith, relying on the fact that information gathered from the shipyards is accurate. However, i know for sure that at least 2 shipyards provided the data on the yachts under construction which simply do not exist.
  8. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    I'm very familiar with it. However, I think to a degree it exists on most every publication. However, I still don't see any reason to believe the document in question is materially wrong. I think it's very easy to accuse a publisher. Gathering market information is difficult and I do believe they make an effort to develop this as accurate as possible. They've picked a specific cut off date, they do some amount of verification. Also, if there were serious misstatements their ability to get participants would diminish dramatically. They'd be getting complaints from other builders. And I'm sure they get some of those.

    I think it's way too easy to make unsubstantiated accusations. If one believes there is overstatement on the part of some builders, identify the builders and which units they think are in error. The raw data is published so it's not like it's secretive. Look at last year's and the previous and note which ones never came to fruition. Now, the 10% deposit threshold and/or the start of construction threshold on speculative boats leaves some room for overstatement. There are certainly boats on which deposits are made that never get built. Similarly some get started speculatively and turn into builds to match deposits made.

    Do I believe some may be overstated? Possible. Do I believe the numbers are materially accurate? Yes. I think it's easy to come on line and make accusations without backing them up in any way. Identify a listed boat that one believes is false and why.
  9. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Actually you are accusing Showboats International of failing to verify the numbers and maintain the integrity of the report. They state their efforts to visit shipyards, to cross reference data and the other steps they take to insure accuracy. You claim to know for a fact then state which specific boats you claim were not under construction and how you know. You do realize I hope that the boat doesn't have to be under construction to be considered a project. Either there has to be a 10% deposit or, if it's a speculative or build to stock boat, it has to have had construction started, either cutting metal, hull lay up or tooling. It doesn't have to be both. This is an order book so if the deposit has been received it is included and construction may not have commenced.
  10. RUSSLAND

    RUSSLAND Member

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    So, we consider that there is an order for the yacht if any of the 2 conditions are met: 1) If there is a confirmed order from the customer, and at least the contract for the new construction is signed, or 2) The shipyard builds the stock boat. Correct? In that case i would bet a case of very fine XO Cognac (Or Vintage Dom Perignon if you prefer) that AT LEAST 2 yachts listed in the "Global Order book" do not have the signed contracts from the customer/nor they are planned to be built as a stock boats. However, as the information regarding these matters could be VERY SENSITIVE to the shipyards, and CAN EASILY HAVE NEGATIVE RESULTS, i would rather not claim it here.
  11. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    But you have claimed it here. You posted the link only to say some yachts were listed that weren't true orders or under construction. You made it sound like major cheating. Now you're betting at least two yachts. Well, you know what, out of 735 yachts I would bet there are at least two in error too. That is three tenths of a percent. And I'd bet at least one isn't Italian. By making accusatory statements against Italian builders you're casting doubt on those that may be cheating in your mind as well as those that aren't. You talk about very sensitive to the shipyards, well so are general accusations. I'm sure there is an anonymous source too.

    As I'm sure you can tell, I'm tired of people using the internet to make baseless accusations against other individuals or businesses that they don't have to stand up for. Your entire post was to incite distrust of Italian builders as if there was some massive misrepresentation in the document. Now you're saying two yachts and unnamed shipyard or shipyards. I frankly don't get your motivation for even starting the cheating thread. The people on this site are intelligent enough to realize that all those numbers may not be 100% accurate. The document is an effort to show what is going on in the industry and, in general, who is doing what. I appreciate it. I also believe that there are some yachts omitted. Is that cheating as well or strictly oversight or failure to participate? And had you ever thought there may actually be an order you were not told about?
  12. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    To the information itself

    It looks like the industry in the 80' and up realm has really reached a stability. 2013 had an odd major dip in the 80-90' range, but except for that the last five years have been very consistent. Now, nothing like 2008 and 2009, but I think sometimes we make the mistake of thinking that's the norm and way things should return, when that may be the anomaly and today the normal. At least it's the new normal.

    I hope it means that builders are at a level at which they can maintain profitability now, that they've adjusted from the peak years and aren't depending on abnormally good years to save them but have made management decisions that put them in good shape now. I would love to see similar numbers on smaller boats.

    What we've read so often is the reduction in inboard outboards and increase in outboards and concern about the upper ranges of I/O's and inboards sold by companies which primarily sell smaller boats. I'd really be curious to know about the 40' to 80' market, the Trawlers and sport boats, sportsfishing boats and the sail boat range. I wonder if it's found a stability now, significantly below the peak but still stable.
  13. Liam

    Liam Senior Member

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    I think saying that some yards cheat is way an over statement.

    I think all these yards Azimut-Benetti, Ferretti Group, Sunseeker, Princess build yachts over 80 feet without order. For example the new big Ferretti 960 hull one was build without an order with it selling in Cannes. Benetti also builds some if its steel models that way.
    AFAIK San Lorenzo does not do this. They may do this only with the 82 model, but even that is rare.
    The only way the ShowBoats list can be off base is that sometimes builders start the construction of the hull and super structure, and leave it empty waiting for the order. This might be a hull listed under construction for a year or two (depends how popular the model is) till it is sold. This can happen more in the 80 - 100 feet size.
  14. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    I agree Liam. And I believe there are probably mistakes. There may be cases the one filling out the paperwork was misinformed. Maybe even counted a boat under construction and a deposit and didn't realize the deposit was for the construction. I think the report is materially accurate, not perfect. It still shows some stability in the industry. I did notice no Burger. Wonder if that just means they didn't participate or if that reflects their situation. Interesting things like one Derecktor project and it's on hold. Hatteras had more 80's in process than I would have expected but only the one 100. Several I was not familiar with who had one boat under construction. To me a lot of information. Some concern again with Trinity having 6 listed but 2 on hold and 3 are shown with 2013 scheduled deliveries.
  15. MedRascal

    MedRascal Senior Member

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    Actually Hatteras has 3 new 80MY under construction due for delivery in 2014 (one of them is being completed in time for the Miami Boat Show this February). Hull#2 of the new 100RPH is well under construction and hull #3 is due to start shortly for a 2015 delivery.
  16. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    Well, the survey was based on a September date so that could have limited the ones shown. That is probably why hull #3 of the 100 is not shown. As to the 80's, not sure why the third isn't shown. It is good to hear that they have those boats under way. Do you know by chance how many 60 MY's they have underway?

    Are all these being built to order or are some speculative?
  17. MedRascal

    MedRascal Senior Member

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    As far as I know, Hatteras doesn't build hulls above 70ft without orders. I don't know exactly how many 60MY are under construction, but I'd expect at least 3 or 4 as I've been told the model has sold well after the last FLIBS.
  18. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    60 is a bit different too in that some dealers will buy it for inventory. I hope the new Hatteras can be successful. I'd hate to see them fall from the landscape and I was quite worried about them finding a buyer. Don't have to go too far from them to find out what the wrong buyer can do. Just look at the entire Fountain, Baja, Donzi disaster. Yes, very different market and boats but still a huge warning as to what can go so bad.

    Now, next thing Hatteras needs to do is bring back a 120'. Well, plus rebuild their sportsfishing business a bit, although they seem somewhat willing to let a lot of that happen in the Cabo brand.
  19. olderboater

    olderboater Senior Member

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    What is interesting is when you look at the numbers from 100' and above and I'm anxious to see the 2013 numbers. In 2012, according to Campers and Nicholson, looking at number of yachts 100' and up delivered and looking at Brand, not total builder, Sunseeker led with 9, Custom Line and Azimut had 8, and Westport, Sanlorenzo and Benetti had 7 each. Gulf Craft had 6 and Heesen had 5. Amazing the different answers when you look at the information in a different way. Obviously dollars on order and under construction heavily weights those building very large yachts which take years. Number of units delivered weights the volume stock builders.