[YachtForums]

That's pretty impressive. You're all the way up in Connecticut and are aware of the Riviera scenario. I believe you are right! Michael Bach from Rybovich knows alot about this and he's one of the people that is helping to shape the shift. He posted earlier in the thread. Maybe he can expand on this.

[Arniev]

Originally Posted by YachtForums

In re-reading my post, I realized I didn't answer your question Arnie.

I'm not buying right now. Of the areas I'm watching (diligently, I might add), I'm seeing price drops of around $5k to $10k monthly. Of course, as you get up into the stratospherically priced properties, the price drops are larger.

It appears, and common sense dictates, waterfront properties are holding up the best. Still, I'm seeing a large number of waterfront homes fall through the $1 million level. A few months ago, the best you could hope to find is a tear-down for $1 million. Now, I'm seeing many more desirable properties in this range.

The way I look at it... each month I wait, I'm banking money. Maybe I'm wrong, but I simply can't afford these prices, so I have no choice but to wait, hope and pray.

Carl,
You may be right!
A correction in the market is long overdue.
And with recent weather predictions that are more GLOOM than SUNNY,
this might just happen even slightly faster than expected.
Arnie

[Codger]

There is another factor when looking at the "price corrections".
Insurance. I looked at a 4,000 square foot commercial building in Vero Beach and the insurance was insane, dealbreaker. I don't know what the impact of insurance premiums would be in the residential sector but mortgages without insurance don't happen in my experience.

[YachtForum]

Hi all,

I’ve been out of town for the past week looking at property. I’m back now, but I’m laying low on YF so I can do some “homework”. Speaking of which, I came across some stats and thought I would share...

Carl

Comstock Partners, Inc.

The Hard Landing For Housing is Already Here September 14, 2006

The market is suddenly assuming that since energy prices are declining and mortgage rates are drifting down, consumer spending will pick up and the housing industry decline will end. In our view this outcome is highly unlikely. Our negative outlook for consumer spending is based far more on the end of the housing boom than it is on high oil prices. In turn, it is now evident that housing is already undergoing a hard landing that can’t be cured by a downturn in mortgage rates, and that the situation is likely to worsen. Here are some facts to consider.

* 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000

* 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

* 15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

* 10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes.

* $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

* 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.

* Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.

* According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.

* The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.

* New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

* The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

* The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

* The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

* The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.

* According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

* Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.

* Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

Although new housing starts directly account for only 5% of GDP, the indirect effects are far greater. Some studies show that the housing industry and all its related activities have accounted for 30% to 40% of the entire employment growth in the current cyclical expansion. In addition it has been well demonstrated that mortgage equity extractions have been a cash cow providing home owners with hundreds of billions of dollars that have gone into consumer spending. With housing already in a hard landing, it will be extremely difficult to avoid a hard landing in the economy as well. In our view the stock market is in the same kind of denial it was in 2000 when the vast majority of strategists and economists already knew the dot-com bubble had burst, but mistakenly thought it would have little impact on the rest of the economy or on stocks.

[OutMyWindow]

Vancouver is right on your heels. Good time to live on a Boat.
Compliments of the vanhousingblogger.....

[CaptTom]

Hello all,
Joining this thread a little late, but let me throw in my $.02.
There is so much housing inventory here in Palm Beach County, I'm hearing developers of new communities are holding off building, since buyers are not coming in droves. The past two hurricane seasons did us in, as in it stopped or severly slowed the influx of new residents from other states, and bang our homeowners insurance, where it has gone through the roof (mine went from $3200 last year to almost $7,000 this year, and I have never put a claim in, did all repairs last year myself, out of pocket).
The uphill climb of values the past few years is killing those that did not get out as our value has increased also and properties are appraised every year (not every 30 years, like on Long Island). CTDave is right, if you have some spare change buy up some realestate in Riviera Beach, since I think, it will be much more valuable in a few years.
For me, I'm sitting on my house (although we have considered downsizing), my variable mortgage doesn't start changing for another 5 years, and I need to get the kids through high school. I will tap some of the equity of my castle to pay down some outstanding credit (and take the writeoff on the mortgage interest). But if you are thinking of moving down here to paradise, it is a buyers market, but the living expenses will bite you.
Capt Tom

[Arniev]

Originally Posted by CCamper

Hi all,

I’ve been out of town for the past week looking at property. I’m back now, but I’m laying low on YF so I can do some “homework”. Speaking of which, I came across some stats and thought I would share...

Carl

Hi, Carl.
If this article holds true, this only means there is still HOPE that you can get the property you like, at a Good Price.
GOOD LUCK!
Arnie

[C4ENG]

With my family in the realestate market just north of Palm Beach in St. Lucie county, they tell me about a lot of ocean/intercoastal side new build houses and condo's that people have bought to flip and are now stuck with them becuase the market is flooded. There are some very good deals to be had with these people trying to get out from underneith there morgage. Some want to sell for less than they paid for there pre-construction price to save there credit. If any one would like some contact #'s please send me a message.

[YachtForum]

There's another storm brewing, a tropical depression (sorta speak)... it might hit Florida harder then a hurricane.

Snowbirds (non-homestead) flocking from Florida...

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/loc...home-headlines

New home buyers shut out. Can't qualify for mortgages due to taxes & insurance...

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/busines..._OUT_1001.html

[CaptTom]

Carl,
I just read that story this morning and think that FL may price snowbirds right out of here, into GA and SC. I don't get the point that snowbirds will be shouldering the cost of services, and have seen a rise of 174% in tax bills over the past 5 years. Where the heck is all the money going that the municipalities have been collecting from all of our inflated tax bills? The cops and firemen did not get a 174% raise? FPL rates haven't gone up that much (although it feels that way). These cities, munis, counties have got to have a pile of money they are sitting on due to the explosive property value growth, and the fact that you are reassessed almost yearly.
Perhaps we need to change the Homestead Exemption and include anyone who owns proprty here, to help preserve our resources. Hey, I don't like it any more than others when we have the snowbirds, Q-tip heads, whatever you want to call them, here for the winter. But of they bail out, what happens to our infrastructure? That much more property on the market, less jobs for those that assist them, less $$ floating around the businesses, etc.
Capt Tom

[Loren Schweizer]

That's right, Bob.

The latest (Oct 2 issue) of Barron's, p. 44, 'Florida's Housing Hurricane' has more to make your socks roll up & down:

"Like the now legendary Perfect Storm, Florida real estate has three groups interacting to feed the market with inventory--builders, speculators, and traditional sellers.
The speculators initially undercut the builders, but now the builders are leapfrogging the speculators to unload inventory. With prices crashing, speculators who can do it are walking away from substantial deposits. The recent round of cancellation reports from builders will continue to grow, and some builders will report negative sales, as they experience more cancellations than sales. So the perfect storm ramps up, as builder inventory grows and the main force of buying in recent years, the investor, has dried up. What's the role of traditional sellers? Their ship is the one that capsizes with all hands lost".

Nice nautical nuance there.

Folks like Carl are licking their chops waiting for that 'WalMart Moment' when this thing really goes into the toilet. Cash is king.

A major ramification will be the hordes of contractors, sales agents, suppliers, mortgage brokers, insurance agents, title-insurance writers, home inspectors, and attorneys ( I like that best), all clamoring to wash your boat for cheap.

[rockstrmkr]

Over here on the West Coast, specifically Marco Island, we started into the downward trend just about two years ago, and prices are now in many cases 50% less than they were two years ago. We are just now seeing buyers come into the marketplace again.
Naples on the other hand has only been in the downward trend for about one year, and still has a long way to go.

[Kevin]

I wish I could move to Florida... affordable housing would make the whole hurricane thing a little more tolerable. LOL

[Loren Schweizer]

Originally Posted by Kevin

I wish I could move to Florida... affordable housing would make the whole hurricane thing a little more tolerable. LOL

Kevin, believe it or not, there is such a thing... that is, if you've got the right "home".
A couple of years ago, I had a 121' converted ( ex-Canadian commercial fisheries vessel) expedition boat listed for sale. Initially docked over on the east side of Tampa Bay in a commercial yard, she had to move out and found a spot over on the west side of the bay, about a mile off a small marina, primarily due to her excessive draft.
The Coasties came out to investigate; all was legal. "Pattam's" owners would dinghy in to get groceries and an occasional prospective client of mine.

Pretty cool-- no dock fees, no utilities, no taxes.

I spent a few nights aboard and enjoyed magificent views of my surrounds.

Still have a comical video shot by local TV channel 13 sent out to investigate the 'mystery vessel'... we made the evening news.

She sold for less than $1.3M.. heckuva deal.

Kind of like Stan's Shadow vessels, only without the fancy smaller yacht.