[brian eiland]

I've added this cross-reference posting concerning this oil supply subject.

http://www.yachtforums.com/forums/61047-post36.html

[Kevin]

Just read this this morning:

AIR CANADA ANNOUNCES CAPACITY AND STAFF REDUCTIONS

June 17, 2008

In response to record high fuel prices, Air Canada today announced a reduction in capacity which will impact fleet and staffing levels effective with the implementation of its fall and winter schedule. The airline plans to reduce total system capacity by 7.0 per cent in the fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009, compared to the same period a year earlier. The reduction in flying will require fewer employees to operate the airline. This will result in a decrease in staff levels of up to 2,000 positions across all levels of the organization.

“The loss of jobs is painful in view of our employees’ hard work in bringing the airline back to profitability over the past four years,” said Montie Brewer, President and Chief Executive Officer. “I regret having to take these actions but they are necessary to remain competitive going forward. Air Canada, like most global airlines, needs to adapt its business and reduce flying that has become unprofitable in the current fuel environment. If fuel prices remain at current levels, we can anticipate further capacity reductions,” said Mr. Brewer.

Notice he said "remain the same". That's not even taking into account more increases, which everyone's of course predicting.

The airline industry has been severely impacted as the price of oil has more than doubled from one year ago and has quadrupled since 2004. Every $1 increase in the price of oil per barrel adds an estimated $26 million to Air Canada’s annual fuel expense. Fuel is the carrier’s single largest expense item accounting for more than 30 per cent of total operating expense, and at current price levels will cost the airline close to $1 billion more in 2008 than in 2007.

Including the benefit of fuel hedging, at current fuel prices and capacity levels, Air Canada would spend an average of $230 in fuel costs alone to carry one passenger on a round trip journey, which is up from an average of $146 in 2007, and $110 in 2004.

In addition to record high fuel prices, Canadian carriers are forced to contend with federal and provincial fuel excise taxes, security fees and airport charges that are amongst the most expensive in the world today.

In the fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009, Air Canada plans to reduce domestic capacity by 2.0 per cent, U.S. transborder capacity by 13.0 per cent and international capacity by 7.0 per cent, for a total system capacity reduction of 7.0 per cent for the two quarters compared to the prior year’s period.

This 7.0 per cent system capacity reduction includes capacity adjustments previously announced including the suspension of Toronto-Rome non-stop service (with resumption planned for the peak summer season) and the withdrawal of Vancouver-Osaka non-stop service effective October 26, 2008. The revised fall and winter schedule, as well as adjustments to the fleet, will be made available at a later date.

[Loren Schweizer]

According to a piece a day or three ago in the WSJ, there is a company whose business model consists of spraying some kind of juice into a jet engine (even while at the ramp), have that engine spooled up for a minute or two, and then catch the toxic soup that drains out. Done a few times, all the crud that accumulates on the turbine blades disappears, thus allowing the engine to run cooler and use less Jet A. Supposed to pay for itself in two-week's operations, and millions for the airline over a year's time.
Forget the name, though. (My half-heimer's kicking in)

[Kevin]

I just read that in some parts of south-west England & Wales that price of fuel is up to just below US$15.00/USgal... again, all supposedly the fault of the tanker drivers.

[NYCAP123]

Originally Posted by Kevin

I just read that in some parts of south-west England & Wales that price of fuel is up to just below US$15.00/USgal... again, all supposedly the fault of the tanker drivers.

You mean the tanker drivers are the ones pocketing all those profits. Well, they work hard so good for them. At least it's not some slimey CEO just profiteering.

[revdcs]

Originally Posted by Kevin

I just read that in some parts of south-west England & Wales that price of fuel is up to just below US$15.00/USgal... again, all supposedly the fault of the tanker drivers.

Not strictly true. There may have been one or two people pushing their prices but generally we are hanging around $4:60 a litre ($18:40 UK Gal) - and we have been at that price for a while now.

The biggest problem has been getting hold of the stuff, with many garages running dry. The biggest impact has been on the tourist industry which the South West relies on quite heavily. People are unwilling to travel unless they know they can buy fuel to get home.

The Tanker drivers have now settled the dispute. They currently earn a basic wage of $64,000 to $70,000 per year and claim that it hasn't changed since 1992. They have agreed a 14% increas in basic pay over the next two years.

[brian eiland]

I think most will find this VERY interesting...how we got to this speculative market in crude oil. I saw this last night, and it was an eye opener

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdRbuUQNcxw

[NYCAP123]

I'm shocked. You're not one of those whaco -left- wing- conspiracy -theorists who believe there are a bunch of Texas oil guys trying to rig the oil commodities market and get authority for off shore and tundra drilling so they can then flood the market with overpriced oil turning themselves from multi-millionaires into multi-Billionaires overnight and creating a huge servant class at the same time are you? I mean, do you realize what kind of political connections that would require?

[K1W1]

Originally Posted by NYCAP123

I mean, do you realize what kind of political connections that would require?

Hi,

As an outsider looking I would say those connections seem to already be pretty strong

[Kevin]

Originally Posted by NYCAP123

I'm shocked. You're not one of those whaco -left- wing- conspiracy -theorists who believe there are a bunch of Texas oil guys trying to rig the oil commodities market and get authority for off shore and tundra drilling so they can then flood the market with overpriced oil turning themselves from multi-millionaires into multi-Billionaires overnight and creating a huge servant class at the same time are you? I mean, do you realize what kind of political connections that would require?

I think "dripping sarcasm" should have it's own font.

[NYCAP123]

K1W1 , Kevin

[Codger]

Speculation.. Futures contracts.
What the heck is wrong with using the futures markets? If I'm going to need x amount of diesel in Q1 2009 and believe that supply relative to demand is going to result in higher prices then I'd be an idiot not to buy forward and fix my costs ahead of time.

[NYCAP123]

Folks,
I've got a question. It may be a little off topic, but I'm not sure. If so I apologize.
June 15th was Father's Day. Given their druthers, most guys I know would like to be on their boats. NOBODY WAS OUT.
Was it the fuel prices or .........

[Loren Schweizer]

From my vantage point on the southern tip of Key Biscayne, yesterday (Sunday) was quite busy with boats. All day long, everything from large sportfishers, motoryachts, a slew of center console boats, scads of waverunner-types (morons!), sailboats...all running (and most were really honkin' along as if to figuratively poke Big Oil/speculators/your-choice-of-bogeyman in the eye) in & out of Biscayne Bay, past the lighthouse, headed to/from Fowey Light and beyond...looked like business as usual on the first Official Summertime weekend.

Again, boating isn't a matter of life and death....it's much more important than that.

[brian eiland]

Originally Posted by brian eiland

...from my posting #81 above

Now I have a more dire prediction, $250-300 per barrel by end of year 2008

What do you think really caused a one day increase of $11 per barrel last Fri?? I have to believe it was all of this 'saber rattling' about attacking Iran coming out of Wash DC last week during the AIPAC meetings. Both Israel and some US sources basically said it was inevitable.

Imagine what this action will do for oil prices and our economy.

And this could really happen !!! Israel has said it must do this while Bush is still in office. Israel could start this military action, but they could not sustain it...that will be our role (in the guise of 'protecting' our ally Israel). THIS IS A VERY REAL PROBLEM !!! ...coming soon

Lobbying for Iran war, etc
I live here in Washington DC, and currently we are experiencing a TV ad blitz that subtle lobbies for an action against Iran, and it's not a 'negotiation action', its a military one. If the Iraq war was not enough for you, here we go again with Iran.

"President Bush lacks the political power to attack Iran. As an American strike in Iran is essential for our existence, we must help him pave the way by lobbying the Democratic Party (which is conducting itself foolishly) and US newspaper editors. We need to do this in order to turn the Iranian issue to a bipartisan one and unrelated to the Iraq failure.

We must turn to Hillary Clinton and other potential presidential candidates in the Democratic Party so that they publicly support immediate action by Bush against Iran. We should also approach European countries so that they support American actions in Iran, so that Bush will not be isolated in the international arena again.”

Israel doesn’t want to use its own nuclear weapons because it will get wiped out in return. So it plans to use ours and endanger our soldiers in Iraq in the process. To me, this is absolutely —ABSOLUTELY —unforgivable.[/i]

The same pundants that brought us Iraq are at it again for Iran

Kristol says Bush might bomb Iran if he thinks Obama will win (in other words before Bush leaves office in less than 6 months :!: :!: :!: )

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/0...bama-will-win/