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From $2.00 gas to $5.00 gas in 4 years

 
 
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Old 07-07-2008, 03:04 PM   #166 (permalink)
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So, Brian, what's it going to take? 6 bucks a gallon? 7 or 8 bucks a gallon?
All that the CDN/US governments are going to do is figure out how to tax as much as they can. Oregon wants to set up a mileage tax, Canadian provinces have already or are looking at a Carbon Tax.
Those great minds in Detroit are sure doing a great job of marketing flex fuel vehicles in Nebraska, are they not...
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Old 07-07-2008, 03:06 PM   #167 (permalink)
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Fair enough Brian, but what about the World Bank report that states biofuels are responsible for the 75% rise in food prices?
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:20 AM   #168 (permalink)
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Optimism...hopefully

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meanz Beanz View Post
Brian,
They are now estimating that Mexico will export its last barrel in 4 years... circa 2012. Now thats scary, the drop off in production is huge and domestic usage will approximately equal production by that date.
That is scary, isn't it.

But haven't they found some big reserves off Brazil??

And I don't hear a lot about Venezula these days...it was estimated that she had the biggest reserves in the world...except it was a very heavy crude, But isn't that more productive than oil sands on a density basis??

Quote:
As for not drilling, I think that you need to exploit everything you can to soften the blow here. Use the reserves you have, they are not sufficient but they will help buy time and time is needed to transition without economic hardship. I think if you crash into a wall of enthusiastic and well meaning green ideals the reality will be substantial hardship. This is not an either or choice, you/we are setup with a massive amount of infrastructure to support liquid hydrocarbon fuels, changing that over to something else in a twenty year period is break neck speed.
I would agree with more drilling, but that is LONG term. Can you honestly tell me that in two years time the auto industry couldn't drag out some old designs and cut the engine sizes from 8 cyl to 6 cyl, and put one more gear in the transmission (or go std shift) and that alone would gain you a 20% better fuel economy!!.

Or how about two years to install a few of these CNG fillers, either personal home units or at selected gas stations:
CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) vehicle at home
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgcNJWaO_Fw
This is not rocket science!!

Honda already has the cars and I believe it is not that difficult to convert a normal gas engine to CNG.

(Disclosure: I have heavily invested in natural gas in our Marcellus Shale)

T. Boone Pickins is suggesting natural-gas powered vehicles as well

Quote:
We need to exploit what we have but greatly encourage competitive alternates, you could argue that we are to late to fill the gap with what we have in the way of oil but have not yet tapped, that might be so, but not to go after the closest solution here will be a major problem. By all means go green, sustainable etc but not to ease it in is insane... we are replacing a 100+ years of accumulative investment, to ask one generation to replace that in the space of 20 years or so is a big challenge, to shorten that period is asking for big trouble.
I don't think so. We made up our minds and put a man on the moon in 8 YEARS !!...unbelievable. We can attack this problem as well if those jerks in Washington stop trying to play political football with this serious problem
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:32 AM   #169 (permalink)
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"We can attack this problem as well if those jerks in Washington stop trying to play political football with this serious problem "

I don't mean to migrate the topic, but ... that isn't going to happen until we find some way to separate the jerks from the money by making it illegal for a political office holder or candidate to accept a contribution from any person who is not a registered voter in that politiician's district, i.e. if you can't vote for the jerk, you can't give the jerk a dime. Accepting a cent from anyone else should be a felony, just like the bribe it is. Corporations can not register to vote and few lobbyists live in the jerk's district. Limit contributions to some low figure such as $500 and prohibit political parties from recieving money from other than registered voters.

I think we would see an immediate and healthy change for the better.
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:36 AM   #170 (permalink)
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Chinese subsidies

I was watching special program by Ted Koppel on the Chinese auto situation last night, and realized that I was not aware of the big fuel subsidies offered to their populace by the government. It brought a question to my mind, 'how can a country with so little internal fuel supplies afford to subsidize the cost to their public??'

Here is one article, and with one bright spot on the horizon:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4183258.ece
"China’s fuel subsidies have helped to support the country’s growing demand but it was thought these would remain in place until after the Olympics, because the authorities would not want to trigger social unrest.

Global crude prices have been rising sharply and Chinese domestic fuel prices have lagged behind. The price difference has highlighted the contradiction between demand and supply, Chinese state television said, quoting the country’s National Development and Reform Commission
."

Maybe after the Olympics we will see some changes??
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:42 AM   #171 (permalink)
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Advertising windfall

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marmot
"We can attack this problem as well if those jerks in Washington stop trying to play political football with this serious problem "

I don't mean to migrate the topic, but ... that isn't going to happen until we find some way to separate the jerks from the money by making it illegal for a political office holder or candidate to accept a contribution from any person who is not a registered voter in that politiician's district, i.e. if you can't vote for the jerk, you can't give the jerk a dime. Accepting a cent from anyone else should be a felony, just like the bribe it is. Corporations can not register to vote and few lobbyists live in the jerk's district. Limit contributions to some low figure such as $500 and prohibit political parties from recieving money from other than registered voters.

I think we would see an immediate and healthy change for the better.
Newspapers, TV, etc, etc would never support such a thought...they make too much money from the huge advertising expenditures.


Another thought....where do each of the States in this union get a HUGE portion of their operating expenses...gas taxes of course. There are many forces that do not want to see big changes in the staus-quo, or certain would offer big resistance.
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Old 07-12-2008, 12:44 PM   #172 (permalink)
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Just a couple of observations.

Both GM and Ford have offered flex fuel (gasoline/ethanol) vehicles in North America. Demand wasn't there, even in those areas that have ethanol readily available. If the demand for ethanol at the pumps was there, it would have been supplied despite the nimbys whining.

Up until 2004 flex (gasoline/LPG) production vehicles were available. Again, very little demand.

The US EPA has long brown coils for brains. Somehow they missed out on what the Europeans figured out when it came to vehicle emissions and came up with their own set of standards for the US. Killed off diesel in California and much of the rest of the continent. Ok, Rocket scientist, diesel engines are 25 to 40% more efficient than gasoline engines so if you swapped out gasoline in favour of diesel the total consumption would drop...

The most advanced research in the world on algae based bio-diesel was done, not in Europe or Asia, but in the US.

Sure, all levels of government make money off gasoline taxes but if you think that they'd leave other fuels off their grab list I'd like some of whatever
you poured on your corn flakes this morning. For the most part I doubt that the governments care what gets put in the fuel tanks.

China can apply subsidies to fuel for domestic use, they are not short of cash. Try and buy a cotton shirt in the US that is actually made in the US. The profits are going somewhere and it ain't in to the lower 48.
If you want everything as cheap as possible then your standard of living will eventually balance out with the standard of living in the place that you source all your goods from, ( I think that might be Economics 101 rule 37).


Marcellus should pay off. At 100 bucks/bbl Bakken is now more than viable for increases.

Mexico is finally looking at outsiders to build up their reserves since they rape PEMEX as a government revenue source instead of leaving enough to do the exploration drilling required.

In the interests of full disclosure I have invested in just about every hole punching venture that makes any sense to me. And, yes, I'm watching to see who will go punching new holes between Florida and Cuba. What border? I love horizontal drilling. To quote Bette Midler, F' em if they can't take a joke. There are days I really ought to fly a skull and crossbones.
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Old 07-12-2008, 01:08 PM   #173 (permalink)
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New Tranmissions from Ford

Quote:
Originally Posted by brian eiland View Post
...Can you honestly tell me that in two years time the auto industry couldn't drag out some old designs and cut the engine sizes from 8 cyl to 6 cyl, and put one more gear in the transmission (or go std shift) and that alone would gain you a 20% better fuel economy!!.
Wow, Somebody must have actually listened...just got this message thru DesignFax Online

Wheels:
Ford accelerates shift to 6-speed transmissions

The big shift is on at Ford Motor Company, as the automaker plans to more than double the number — to 1.4 million — of fuel-efficient, 6-speed automatic transmissions in its North American cars and trucks by the end of 2009.

The advanced transmissions provide customers 4% to 6% improved fuel economy compared with typical 4- and 5-speed gearboxes, as well as better acceleration and a quieter and more refined driving experience, according to the company.

“Advanced 6-speed automatic transmissions are an important element in our sustainability strategy to improve fuel economy for our customers and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% in our new vehicles by 2020,” says Barb Samardzich, vice president, Ford North America Powertrain Operations. “They also deliver improved acceleration and smoother shifting, all at a great value for consumers.”

By the end of 2012, it is estimated that 98% of Ford’s North American automatic transmissions will be advanced 6-speed gearboxes.

Less RPM, more MPG
Ford’s newest 6-speed is the 6F35, which debuts in the 2009 Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner sport-utility crossover vehicles and replaces the current 4-speed. It also will be used in the 2009 Mazda Tribute, as well as two other vehicles early next year.

For 2009, the Escape and Mariner receive more powerful engines, but even with that improved power, they also increase their fuel economy by 1 mpg thanks to the new 6F35.

Key to the new 6-speed transmissions is increased gear span compared with 4- and 5-speeds. This allows vehicle powertrains to operate at a more optimum level, depending on the particular driving situation.

“For example, a higher first gear delivers more torque when accelerating from a stop while the deeper overdrive gear enables a vehicle’s engine to use less energy at highway cruising speeds, which saves gas,” says Phil Yuhasz, engineering director, Transmission and Driveline Engineering. “In addition, with two more gears, a 6-speed transmission allows the engine to operate at its optimum efficiency, for a greater period of time, further boosting fuel economy.”

The 6F35 is produced at Ford’s Van Dyke Transmission Plant in Sterling Heights, MI, and will double the plant’s production capacity to 1.3 million units annually. Van Dyke also assembles the 6F50 front-wheel-drive transmission. Last year, 221,000 6F50 transmissions were produced for the Ford Taurus, Ford Taurus X, Ford Edge, Mercury Sable, and Lincoln MKX.

Flexible for added fuel-saving technology
Ford 6-speed gear ratios also play a key role in the company’s new PowerShift dual-clutch transmission. Currently used in the new European Ford Focus and Ford C-Max, PowerShift combines the ease and permanent motion of a conventional 6-speed automatic transmission with the performance of a manual transmission. It also delivers a fast and sporty shift while maintaining excellent shift smoothness.

“These technologies are all about fuel economy,” says Craig Renneker, chief engineer for new automatic transmissions, Ford Powertrain Operations. “And our advanced 6-speed transmissions will mate perfectly with the new Ford EcoBoost engines that are on the way.”


Brian noted,
They are only about 10 years LATE !!!
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Old 07-12-2008, 01:58 PM   #174 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian eiland
Brian noted,
They are only about 10 years LATE !!!
Mercedes got 7-speed automatics a couple of years ago....
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Old 07-12-2008, 04:41 PM   #175 (permalink)
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...interesting submission on another forum..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meanz
Yes its scary.

The reserves off Brazil require, to my knowledge, the deepest hole ever drilled by man to access. The deepest hole drilled, to date, took the Russians 20 years to drill, add to that its underwater... this is not easy access oil.

I would say so...Venezuela is driving their production into the ground, they lost all the talent when they kicked out the private sector. Talent is a big issue here as well, all the oil guys are getting on and the skills have dwindled, anyway Hugo is stuffing up a bit but at least the oil is still there.

Easily... our FAMILY car is a 1.3l 4cyl Honda with a constant variable auto, (5.4 L/ 100K or 43.5 mpg mixed cycle) its nothing short of amazing for space and hauling capacity considering its size, its more than we need 95% of the time. At other times we hire whatever is needed. The thing is as good as a Prius in most respects, including fuel (real world, not advertised numbers) with out the 8K worth of batteries and at about half the cost.

Honda are also selling a 6 that switches back to a 3,4 or 5 depending on power required. A huge amount can be done with engine management systems and transmissions. VW's DSG absolutely kills Autos for efficiency, basically its two offset computer controlled manuals in one box that changes like no auto you have ever driven and delivers close to manual fuel economy.

The thing to consider here is change over, it costs to change and most people are pushed for money... it requires investment now that most are not well placed to do.

To be quite frank I am always amazed at the size of car that the average person in the US feels they need.

LNG (AutoGas) cars are common here, a big % of Taxis and a lot of vans run it. The conversion is easy and did cost around 2.5K when we got 60c US to the AUD. Now it cost more because the government rebates 2K or so (I think?) and the fitters are flat out with more than they can handle.

You can buy Ford Utes that run solely AutoGas straight from the factory, dual fuel is also reasonably common in the big old petrol guzzling 4wd's and the like.

Yes but the track record for most mines, wells, refineries or anything of that nature is about 10years and I don't think we have 5 without significant supply disruption.

One thing to really get a firm grip on here and the real problem lies in the exponential growth of demand against a falling supply. The equation works such that at around peak supply, which is typically 50% resource consumption, you are at 85% to 90% of the time line to resource exhaustion. Or to put it in other words the second half of the resource takes around 10-15% of the time to consume that the first half took. This is a rough rule of thumb that works where you have expanding demand against fixed supply. Its what caught the mob on Easter Island out....Basically this means is we can double all the oil ever found and it will only buy 20 to 30 extra years... maybe. Also keep in mind that significant supply disruption comes well before a resource is exhausted, we will not get to use all the oil before a solution is required, the rate of supply will determine the point at which what ever is left becomes practically useless to us. So what ever we find and exploit here will not make a massive difference in the wider time frame.

The hard fact is that if the human race is to keep growing at its current pace we need an energy resource with a quantum leap in potential from oil. This is not a baby step, this is going to require revolutionary technology, the likes of which we have not got yet.... either that or we stop breeding tomorrow. If you doubt that statement go back and look at every energy crisis that has faced our species, we have always come out of it using a vastly more abundant, cheaper, energy technology than we had going into the crisis. Typically the masses also thought that it was the end of the world and could not see what was coming. I think we are in the same situation again, I think we need crisis to drive the change. It will be a hurdle in terms of new infrastructure investment, both private and public. It will be a big bump in the road economically speaking, compounded by appalling timing by the looks of things but it should produce some amazing change. In that light I look at new oil as nothing more than a stop gap that will do little more than ease the change...and a big change it will be. We can't turn this thing on a dime, we in Oz take 20 years to turn over our car fleet in good times. It will take every bit of that time and more to realign our energy infrastructure and thats assuming we had a stand out, universally agreed upon solution tomorrow, which we don't. Replacing a large chunk of our energy infrastructure is a massive investment for one generation to make in a short space of time. It took a hundred + years to build up what we have, to replace it in 20 and allow for growth is no small feat, both physically and economically... especially considering the rate at which we are losing skilled labour with the retirement of the huge boomer generation.

This problem is challenging on all fronts... skills, labour, finance (debt), technological and political. I never here much commentary that ties it all together, the analysis is always 2D and lacking IMO. If our leaders really "got it" we'd have a little more urgency in our stride by now.
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Old 07-12-2008, 04:42 PM   #176 (permalink)
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Energy Storage

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..And I don't hear a lot about Venezuela these days...it was estimated that she had the biggest reserves in the world...except it was a very heavy crude, But isn't that more productive than oil sands on a density basis??
Interestingly I just heard from T. Boone that China was trying to buy all of their futures

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meanz
The hard fact is that if the human race is to keep growing at its current pace we need an energy resource with a quantum leap in potential from oil. This is not a baby step, this is going to require revolutionary technology, the likes of which we have not got yet.... either that or we stop breeding tomorrow. If you doubt that statement go back and look at every energy crisis that has faced our species, we have always come out of it using a vastly more abundant, cheaper, energy technology than we had going into the crisis.
I don't know that we require a 'quantum leap in revolutionary technology'. I think we just need to exploit alternative technologies and existing energy supplies we've not taken advantage of.

I'm unsure of those energy crisis in our past that have us coming up with something vastly new. When and what were these crises points of vastly new technologies, other than the discovery of oil energy??

I am firmly convinced that one thing we need is MUCH BETTER methods of STORING energy. With that technology we could really take advantage of the huge nuclear reactor...our sun...what a fantastic source. Spoke of that here,
Ship Propulsion & Energy Supply/Management

I believe we will see very significant new 'battery' technology become viable within TWO years. Finally the fuel prices in the USA are driving for solutions to the problem.
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Old 07-12-2008, 04:45 PM   #177 (permalink)
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T. Boone Pickens' Plan

Just watched a number of sequential YouTube interviews with this guy who has taken it upon himself to launch a $10Million dollar ad campaign here in the USA to suggest a plan to start attacking the situation. Even the threat of this plan should give some speculators pause to reconsider as we are not suddenly 'over the brink of supply' yet.

...interesting if you have time...

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yztOgaxS_7Q

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7m-HPqls5I

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRFu2w-QDrM

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUVyszpSFCs

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKRNjD9HB9g

Boone Pickens Energy Plan Part 6
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oyk8-zcTKoc
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Old 07-14-2008, 01:06 AM   #178 (permalink)
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The kind of rom I'd like to have in my budgets

Jul 14, 2008

UAE needs $40 oil to balance 2008-09 budget
Income from investments by the GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds is likely to account for 55 per cent of the budget spending in the region over the next decade even if oil prices drop to $90 per barrel, Khaleej Times says. With oil prices touching $148 per barrel on Friday, surplus revenues of GCC countries feeding into SWFs and official reserves are expected to reach $2 trillion at the end of 2008, according to estimates.

GCC countries save almost 70 per cent of their oil windfall - estimated to have surged to $750 billion over the past five years in current account surpluses.


http://www.kippreport.com/dailynews....210&subid=1372
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Old 07-14-2008, 06:04 PM   #179 (permalink)
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No, I didn't have advance news of this.

"President George W Bush has lifted an executive ban on drilling for oil in most US coastal waters, and has urged lawmakers to follow suit........"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7506346.stm
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:04 PM   #180 (permalink)
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Well that should make his buddies in the business happy and richer. Hopefully the legislature finally will grow some and tell him to stick it.
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