[Loren Schweizer]

This just in from Saturday's WSJ:
Seems the analysts at Legg Mason Capital Management found past market performance of the DJIA, S & P 500, & Nasdaq after they fell at least 3% on the same day all showed, one year later, to have gained at least 14%.
Including last Tuesday's stumble, there have been 27 such daily drops, going back to 1974.


"Do you know what the markets will do?", asked one wag of the wizened financier who replied, "Yes, of course.....they will change."

[MaxResolution]

Codger's point is well taken. I did enjoy listening to the Ozzie's frustration and their initial disputes over this legendary VAT. What I did not witness was its implimentation, nor any of the adjustments to which you speak.

Broadly speaking, I think it annexes the upwardly mobile middle class. And I think it may well simplify the continual funding of their welfare and health care systems. I will note that they had low crime statistics in 1993, having precluded that their 'dole' enabled this as long as it remained at about 5 to 6.5%. Ours is closer to 1.8%, while corporate welfare is what 5%? (Not counting Haliburton.)

Speaking of George Soros, and the like, they better keep spending on yachts, but it's true what they say about 'new efficiency requirements.' Shipping contributes a whopping share to CO2-loading, and diesel fumes are as bad as second-hand smoke to our health.

[outmywindow]

A watered down explanation to market trends:


“The Plankton Theory, like life itself, begins and ends in the ocean. Plankton, of course, are almost microscopic organisms that serve as food for higher life forms. Without plankton almost every fish and mammal in the sea could not survive, since most species depend upon other fish for their existence and plankton are the initial building blocks of the entire process. Logic would suggest, therefore, that in attempting to forecast the well being of the Great White Whale, Jaws, or even Jaws II, that one of the factors to consider would be the status and future outlook of the plankton. That, in one hundred words or less, is the Plankton Theory.



Now, what possible significance could this have for the investment world? Plenty. Take for example, the area of real estate, especially that of single family housing. We’re all familiar with the rapid escalation of home prices over the last 10 years. For most Americans, their homes have been the best and in many cases the only investment that they have made in their entire lives. Some have gone so far as to invest in several homes and have endured ‘negative carry’ on the cash flow in anticipation of leveraged capital gains a few years down the road. But where does it stop? Can housing continue to increase at twice the Consumer Price Index for the next 10 years?



One way to measure might be via the Plankton Theory. In the case of real estate, the plankton would be the first-time buyer (perhaps a young married couple) with a desire to own their own home but with very little capital to carry it off. When the time comes that they can’t pull it off – either through an inability to come up with a down payment, or to service the monthly mortgage – then the ‘plankton’ would disappear and the rapid escalation in housing prices would ease as well. For, unless the current homeowner has someone to sell his house to, he’ll be unable to afford the house with the view or that extra bedroom, and the process would continue into the echelons of Beverly Hills and Shaker Heights. In the end, the entire market would wither on the investment vine and home prices would stop increasing at the same rapid rate. So to gauge the health of the housing market, look first at the plankton. Without their presence and financial vitality, the market’s not going to repeat the experience of the past 10 years.”

Courtesy: GCB & PM

[MaxResolution]

After you get your family yacht in order, buy commodities-based market currencies. Silver at $12.xx, and every jar of Honey you can find! I say this because there is no future in 'futures,' when the supply itself is gone!

Unless you have the keys to the Rothchild's Castle, is it not a fair assumption that a market-crash before a war is preferrable to a war, and then the combined consequence of a crash? I have to take a grim outlook, because the wheels of greed are steering us into the perfect storm. And Americans are not likely to take kindly to the but-end of a rifle from some foreign troops.

The 'answer' is to shut off all the inputs, and have everyone on this planet spend a week or so, tilling the garden, ie: real sweat-equity, plus a chance to clear our minds!

[Codger]

Just came across this article. Wondering what effect this will have on those that are using accumulated property equity as backup for credit lines that they use in the general market. Hmmm.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...120101759.html

[MaxResolution]

"'The party is over and the fat lady is singing. Bernanke may lower rates, but the dollar will tank if he does,' Anderson said."

I'm not a subscriber, so can't get the WPost article above. But it doesn't matter because we've already seen 100 fresh reports concerning the up-shot from the sub-prime fall out. It's interesting that Broward has seen a moderate 100% increase in defaults, while Palm Beach has seen a whopping 320% increase. 'Trump Tower, Tampa,' -almost belly up! Oh well, the bigger they come...

Rather than wear out my welcome with just another grim doomsayer news piece, I am more than happy to recant my vivid apocalyptic nightmare from the other night. Somehow, I had gotten a real job aboard a big yacht!

In my dream, I was readily appointed to the task of IT Manager for a very distinguished family of global repute. Stem- to-, I suppose their pristine rig was well over 200', and somehow, I had already risen to the task of keeping all of their data issues sorted out, but under no circumstances was I ever to leave my post, day or night...

*Now, it doesn't mater to me what the business at hand, when I devote myself to a position of loyalty, I take it to the inth degree. Since I could not allow any calls to be dropped, I had to monitor most of the family's conversations by a sort of real-time streaming, on-screen & analog process, and if a call was dropped, I was to restore it as fast as I could hit 'restore.' Though I had only met the owner and his wife for a total of say, 10 minutes, I could certainly feel the tremble in her voice as this particular conversation played its course...

Outgoing; (212)-: "Matthew, We don't have time to chat. You are not to speak to anyone on this boat but Me, or my Husband! When we get to New York, you are to unload everything as fast as you can bring it aboard. Do not, under any circumstances explain, or stop to discuss any of this with my crew! At the slightest sign of trouble, we will lock ALL of the cabin doors, and no one is permitted to board the ship except you. Is that clear? Yes, mam-Good! That means Everything, all of the safes, all of my jewelry, everything at the Condo too. Have you secured the cash at the Bank?"

-At which point, I quit live monitoring, you know; how it's not polite to pry. Suddenly, I awoke from my dream as 'alert' as a wet Cheshire cat! Now that's my idea of a 'real job,' and a true adventure too! I just can't wait to man those real cannons on the high seas!

[Codger]

This just came at me. Not China, but does put a bit of a light on differences in real property registration :-) 30 years and the property registration still up in the air.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLA1tiadza8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuXtdvJSMmU

[MaxResolution]

Codger, that's equally out in left field, but I'm sure I deserved it. I'll never see the Orient from an insider's perspective, but you probably have a good point.

So, I always wondered, how much would a $15M. house be worth in Hawaii if there is only 3 years left on the 99 year lease?

[Codger]

Actually Max, I had just rec'd the wierd one above and was wondering if I should post it when i saw yours and went.. "What the hay"

[outmywindow]

Codger

I'm on a low speed connection, so watching movies on my PC is the equivalent of watching paint dry. Maybe let me know what the punchline was?.

[Codger]

Originally Posted by outmywindow

Codger

I'm on a low speed connection, so watching movies on my PC is the equivalent of watching paint dry. Maybe let me know what the punchline was?.

Short form. Building contracted for by some nasty types in Japan. There was an existing building on one part of the lot. The "addition" was built beside and over and actually attached to the original building. Since the nastys never paid the contractors the title was never transferred. Some of the required permits were never applied for as well. 30 years later there are multiple title claims, liens and other encumbrances.

As Max noted, the clip was way out in left field. I just found it amusing in light of the exchanges that you and I had on title management earlier in this thread. As close to the ultimate nightmare scenario as I could imagine.

[outmywindow]

Interesting........sounds like a "script" for a Sunday movie !!
Has all the right ingredients
Lawyers, guns & money.

[MaxResolution]

Why watch TV with these high-action 'thrillers' keep coming at us on-line?...

Here, let me say it one more time:* Cash in your GLD and SLV and buy the real thing.* Holding ETFs is the same thing as playing musical chairs, with only a fraction of the necessary chairs available for those circling the room. Had you switched over just a couple of weeks ago, Friday's decline notwithstanding, already you would have recovered the commission incurred in making the conversion. I still have not entirely followed my own advice, in case that somehow reassures you. Call it lethargy or an attempt to bottom fish or whatever. Regardless, it is foolish. See? I readily admit to it.
*
Don't dare even mention stocks or bonds to me. Holding equities today is beyond foolish and can best be described as downright stupid.
*
My name is Edgar J. Steele. Please visit my web site, www.ConspiracyPenPal.com, for other messages just like this one.

[MaxResolution]

Really, I don't mean to say too much. Overall, I still believe there is hope for those who are wise enough to have an off-shore 'plan A' course of action. Get in now, for this next few weeks promises to pan-out for those counting on Energy futures and Oil. The news is bad, but what the heck, we are only interested in self-preservation. Chapman's summary on last week's 'dead cat bounce':

"..These problems reflect a systemic syndrome that has purposely been visited upon our economy and financial system. This all didn’t happen by accident. The elitists know what they are doing. Free trade and globalization didn’t just happen to us. It was planned as a gateway to world government years ago and it has been used as an instrument of power many times in the past. The problems of our vehicle industry just didn’t happen, they were planned just as the S&L fiasco was planned and our current subprime problems were planned. Our Congress hasn’t acted and won’t act because they do as they are told. They are either paid off or compromised. They march in locked goose step with the lying Treasury and our privately owned Fed. Our financial system passed the point of no return five years ago. There is no way back, our entire financial system is coming down."

Now for the bad news: "Operation Bite":

General Ivashov Calls For Emergency Session Of
UN Security Council To Ward Off Looming US Aggression*
By Webster G. Tarpley
3-25-7


WASHINGTON DC --*The long awaited US military attack on Iran is now on track for the first week of April, specifically for 4 AM on April 6, the Good Friday opening of Easter weekend, writes the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Uglanov in the Moscow weekly "Argumenty Nedeli." Uglanov cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff for his account.

The attack is slated to last for twelve hours, according to Uglanov, lasting from 4 AM until 4 PM local time. Friday is a holiday in Iran. In the course of the attack, code named Operation Bite, about 20 targets are marked for bombing; the list includes uranium enrichment facilities, research centers, and laboratories... http://rense.com/general75/bite.htm
_______________________________________________

Of course I'm not a financial planner, so I normally don't provide a legal waiver, but my instinct says 'run' when the dollar hits 81. Real Gold is a value at $648., and I would buy all you can up to $691. -and hold. Canadian and Mexican energy issues will further erode their currency values. I would look to outback Australia and New Zeland, if you are looking for peace and quiet.

(Ps. Buy the ugliest primer-gray boat, and bury the gold under some lead in the bilge.)

[MaxResolution]

Surely we all wish this thread would die permanently. And, I promise, after this I'll go back to full-time propeller talk.

Just keep this in mind: Speed is of the essence! If you saw the world from my perspective you would already be reading this from some forgotten port on the other side of the world. This month, 'Yacht Sales' -should- double. Next month, 'Prices' -should- follow suit. Spare diesel 'fuel tanks' may be indefinitely 'back-ordered' as well. If in doubt, check your guy-lines.

With this promise, I'll be directing my future comments toward personal preparations, and defensible foreign territories. Hopefully, others will follow this lead, although I realize that most folks who can afford a $40.+M toy probably believe the are above the din of inequity. Still, "the meek shall inherit," and I can only pray that the innocents will quietly acquiesce that, mostly, we Americans really aren't to blame...
__________________________________________________
The title of the book "Financial Armageddon" is not a metaphor. Panzner is talking about the destruction of the financial system as we know it, first by deflation, then by hyperinflation. In addition to managing your investments, he emphasizes the importance of staying aware, alert, and focused on the changing circumstances so that you can act accordingly as the situation shifts. In such a breakdown, your critical thinking skills and ability to react quickly and independently to a world in which nothing is as it seems will be among your best assets. As such, Panzner recommends a number of resources and websites (including http://bullnotbull.com) to help guide you through the transition. Panzner also runs his own blog/website at http://FinancialArmageddon.com

"Unable to cope with the harsh new economic environment, growing numbers of Americans will end up on the streets - confused, homeless and hungry. With that, begging will increase to previously unseen levels. So too will a range of other social ills, especially when those who have lost hope seek solace in drugs or alcohol…Even once-model citizens will have little choice but to break the law to take care of themselves and their families."
__________________________________________________ _____

With threats of Bush attacking Iran in a week, I'm truly afraid that the fix is in. No, I cannot fault those who don't have the resources to see all of the bad things that are happening, let alone know how to read between the lines. According to my friend Barry Chamish, (and now verified many times over,) ordinary Israeli citizens currently face the greatest danger. One false move, and it's 'Bye-bye Gaza.' -Death by proxy, and a mortal wound to all.