Great info Graham! Thank for posting.
Since this thread was originally posted, I've gathered a little more info on China and how their demands on resources may effect prices.
Just on energy alone, take a look at these China-related numbers...
1. In 1993, China became a net oil importer, like the U.S.
2. More than half of China's provinces are facing electricity shortages.
3. China is the 2nd largest energy buyer in the world, after the U.S.
4. China will demand 290 million metric tons of oil by the end of 2004.
5. China's oil demand is expected to double by 2010.
6. China's electricity demand has already doubled and is expected to quadruple by 2020.
7. Last year, China drove 35% of global oil demand.
China has more refrigerators, mobile phones, TV's and motorcycles than the United States. They need lots of juice to power all that technology and they are just getting started.
In the U.S., we burn through 22 million barrels of oil per day. Asia - with a population around 10 times larger than the U.S. - still "only" burns 19 million barrels of oil per day.
Chinese oil demand has already doubled what it was just 7 years ago. So is Japan's. An economist living in Hong Kong predicts it will double again over the next 10 years.
Who knows what will happen with oil prices, or commodities for that matter, which are growing scarce by a world population explosion. For what it's worth, I'm vested in several energy and raw materials stocks and not looking to sell them anytime soon.
My guess is $2.00 gas prices are here to stay.
Carl